Better mathematicians than you have been misled. The question is, what should the strategy be in the total game? The total game is:
- you choose a door - Monty opens another door that reveals a goat - Monty offers you a chance to change your choice of door - your final choice of door is opened and you get what is revealed The two middle steps are key: that is, you know beforehand that Monty will reveal a goat behind another door and that you get a chance to change your choice. See http://www.jsoftware.com/jwiki/Essays/The_Monty_Hall_Problem ----- Original Message ----- From: Björn Helgason <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Date: Sunday, September 10, 2006 12:04 pm Subject: Re: [Jprogramming] The Monty Hall Problem > You basically have two choices > > That is it > > Probabilities do not mount up > > > 2006/9/10, Alain Miville de Chêne <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: > > > > You need to go back to bayesics... > > > > Björn Helgason wrote: > > > The probability of new toss of a coin is not dependent on the > previous> > tosses > > > > > > You now have a 50/50 chance of choosing your door or the other > > > > > > The probability is even anything else is just plain silly ---------------------------------------------------------------------- For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/forums.htm
