FYI
CNN.com
Editor's note: Nathan J. Brown is professor of political science and
international affairs at George Washington University and nonresident senior
associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is author of
six books on Middle East politics, the most recent of which is "When Victory is
Not an Option: Islamist Movements in Arab Politics" (Cornell University Press,
2012).
(CNN) -- The outbreak of violence between Israel and the Hamas-controlled
"statelet" of Gaza serves no end. Both sides know that, yet they plunge ahead
anyway, claiming that they are forced by their adversary to escalate the
conflict.
Most experts agree that eventually the fighting will stop and leave the
situation unchanged. The only question is the number of victims. If neither
side has much to gain, why can't they stop themselves?
Each side suspects the other of playing domestic politics. Palestinians fear
that the Israeli government is making war with an eye to upcoming elections.
Israelis suspect that Hamas -- whose full name is the "Islamic Resistance
Movement" -- is lobbing rockets because it is tired of its rivals' taunting
that it is not living up to its middle name.
iReport: Photos from inside the protests in Israel
There is some truth to these charges, but the deeper motivations have to do
less with pleasing the home crowd and more with frightening and deterring the
other side.
Both sides would love to have their adversary disappear but know they cannot
make that happen any time soon, so for now they each have more limited goals.
The Israelis know that they cannot dislodge Hamas from Gaza without
unacceptable cost and endless occupation. But they want to punish the movement
so severely that it will be deterred from future violence. Hamas knows that the
damage it inflicts serves no strategic value, but it hopes that its rockets
will cause dislocation and even panic in Israel and send an international
message that Gaza cannot be ignored.
News: Israel: 'Iron Dome' blocks rocket fired toward Tel Aviv
So the fighting likely will be contained in the end. In addition to civilian
casualties on both sides (with the toll much heavier in Gaza, since Israel is
the much stronger party), there will be substantial political damage, as well.
The United States will be regarded in the Arab world as complicit in the
Israeli offensive. And Egypt, which has a peace treaty with Israel but whose
population sympathizes with Hamas, will feel badly embarrassed by its apparent
powerlessness.
Massive explosion in Gaza City
Is Iran the real target?
Egypt's role in Gaza-Israel conflict
Barrage of bombs, rockets
But the real blame on international actors -- including the United States and
Egypt -- falls not on their actions during this crisis, but on their long
inaction before.
The United States under both President George W. Bush and President Barack
Obama supported a harsh blockade on Gaza and pretended that the
Israeli-Palestinian issue could be dealt with as if Hamas does not exist and
Gaza does not matter. Under ousted leader Hosni Mubarak, Egypt quietly
supported that position. Under Muhammad Morsy, Egypt's new president from the
Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt is no longer quiet or supportive, but it has only
been able to wield rhetorical tools.
Opinion: New dangers in familiar Gaza violence
Egypt (which now tilts toward Hamas) and the United States (which supports
Israel) can, if they cooperate, probably bring about a ceasefire. What they do
afterward is the real question.
There is no clear path forward for international diplomacy, but it is quite
obvious what does not work: Waiting for Hamas to go away. In a visit to Gaza
last May, I saw how thoroughly Hamas has come to dominate politics and society
in the tiny but crowded enclave. The movement runs ministries, polices the
streets and manages the economy. Gaza residents see no alternative to Hamas,
nor are they asked for one, with elections canceled and opposition closely
monitored.
As the Obama administration moves into its second term, it makes more sense to
deal with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that really exists rather than to
pretend that there still is a "peace process" that only needs one more round of
quiet talks to succeed.
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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Nathan Brown.
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