[CNN]
How Middle East has changed since last Gaza conflict - CNN.com
By Nic Robertson, CNN
November 20, 2012 -- Updated 1956 GMT (0356 HKT)
(CNN) -- It would be easy to look at the current conflict, Hamas's militant
fighters and smaller militias firing rockets in to Israel and Israel's crushing
bomb and missile barrages, as a repeat of the 2008/2009 confrontation that
killed more than 1,300 men, women and children. But it is not.
Hamas is in a whole new place now. Still trapped in the crowded confines of
Gaza's close packed neighborhoods where they were elected six years ago, only
now with more friends outside.
What has changed came in the wake of the Arab Spring that swept away some of
Israel's old regional allies replacing them with leaders more sympathetic to
Hamas.
Israel and Hamas: How the conflict reignited
What it takes for Israel-Gaza ceasefire
Rockets slam into Gaza building
No escape for Gaza civilians
Gone is Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak whom Israel could and did rely on to
blockade Gaza and squeeze Hamas in 2008/2009. Gone is the Egyptian state
repression of freedom of speech that helped keep in check popular anti-Israel
passion.
Instead -- almost unthinkable four years ago -- Hamas's political leader holds
a live news conference in Cairo, as Israeli shells strike Palestinian
broadcasters in Gaza. If proof of Egypt's new role was needed, this was it.
Egypt didn't just send Prime Minister Hisham Qandil to Gaza Friday with
expressions of support for Gazans, but handed Hamas the bullhorn for propaganda
when it needed it most. It is a remarkable turnaround.
Khalid Meshal, Hamas's political leader, reveled in the spotlight, as he
described a new, much more Hamas-friendly Egypt.
Q&A: What is Hamas?
But Egypt is far from alone in the regional revolution that begins to isolate
Israel.
The tiny Gulf state of Qatar has proven perhaps the influential political
player, helping shape the region the way it wants.
It has been seen to favor governments like that in Egypt with roots closely
tied to the moderate Islamist Muslim Brotherhood of which the Palestinian Hamas
is a radical off-shoot, but long aligned with Iran.
Last month when the Emir of Qatar made an historic visit to Gaza promising $400
million of aid, it appeared he was trying to pull Hamas away from Iran and
closer to Qatar.
Qatar has been laying the groundwork for this for some time. When Hamas leader
Khalid Meshal fled exile from the spiraling civil war in Syria earlier this
year it was the Qataris whose offer of safe sanctuary he accepted. The Qataris
have leverage in a way they never did in the past.
So where does this leave Israel? Simply put, while Israel is stronger
militarily, it is in a weaker political position than it was in 2009.
Why Israel might hesitate to start a ground invasion
Egypt is not going to help blockade Gaza by constricting the Rafa border
crossing, or by offering the same level of intelligence cooperation to Israel
that they have in the past.
Indeed, by some estimates Egypt's security services no longer have the same
control over Islamist militants as they once did. Many have been released from
jail and are quietly regrouping in the capital's sprawling suburbs or the
sparsely populated and almost lawless Sinai desert bordering Israel.
If the Israeli government had hoped to count on some shreds of Mubarak-era
support, it will be disappointed. Today's Egyptian rhetoric, while falling
short of abrogating the peace treaty with Israel, has very much taken a
pro-Hamas line.
The long universal of the Arab world is a dislike of the Israeli state's
treatment of Palestinians. In the past most Arab leaders were dictators, able
to take a path far different from the views of the Arab street. Not any more.
The region's new post-Arab Spring democratically-elected leaders are only too
aware of the radical hardliners waiting for an opportunity.
© 2012 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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