Chemical allegations in Syria haunt ally Iran
Friday, 30 August 2013
Iranian leaders face a critical moment in facing their people
and the world over Syria’s recent alleged chemical attack. (File photo:
Reuters)
The Associate Press, Dubai
For more than a generation, Iranian papers have regularly
posted
the announcements: Another veteran from the 1980s war with Iraq has died
of complications blamed on exposure to chemical weapons from Saddam
Hussein’s arsenal. Each one is buried with a hero’s honors. The
claims now that Iran’s Syrian allies used similar tactics, including
possibly unleashing sarin gas, has forced Tehran’s leaders into perhaps
their most difficult juncture of the nearly 30-month civil war. Iran’s
rulers could face an uncomfortable backlash at home - and possibly stir
upheavals inside its powerful Revolutionary Guard - if they’re seen as
ignoring allegations and U.N. investigations into possible chemical
attacks by Bashar Assad’s regime. Yet Iran remains, for the
moment at least, solidly behind Assad and seeks to shift attention to
efforts at blocking possible Western military action against Syria.
Damascus is a critical ally for Tehran as a major foothold in the Arab
world and its pathway to funnel aid to its main proxy militant,
Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran’s strategy includes a series of
warnings that Israel could be drawn into a wider conflict - most likely
by Hezbollah offensives - if the U.S. and others launch attacks on
Syrian government sites. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
earlier this week described possible Western attacks as “a spark in a
gunpowder store.” Tehran also is using its diplomatic leverage with Russia and
China to try to slow the momentum toward possible military action. On
Thursday, Iran’s new president, Hassan Rouhani, called possible
military strikes on Syria an “open violation” of international laws. The
comments, reported by state TV, followed talks by telephone with
Russian President Vladimir Putin. Rouhani repeated his blanket
condemnations of any use of chemical weapons. But he also tried to
appeal to political blocs in the West, including the U.S., that are wary
of a rush to military action. “Early judgment can be dangerous,”
said Rouhani, insisting more time is needed to probe the allegations
that it was Assad’s regime that used possible chemical agents in an
August 21 attack that the aid group Doctors Without Borders says killed
at least 355 people. Syrian officials insist that rebels carried out the
attack. Iran’s seesaw strategy of denouncing chemical weapons
but not directly implicating Assad appears to underscore the ongoing
debates inside Iran’s leadership of just how far to stick by Assad. Last
year, several current and former Iranian diplomats published opinion
articles questioning whether Tehran should stick by Assad’s regime or
begin to weigh alternatives. Then in October - as the value of Iran's
currency plunged - some merchants in Tehran's main bazaar chanted
against the government’s financial aid to Assad’s regime. The
current quandary also pushes Rouhani’s government into its first serious
policy test. If U.N. findings conclude that Assad’s military waged a
chemical attack, Rouhani may have to make a calculation: Whether
standing by Assad is worth the potential blow to his overall goals of
building better ties with the West and trying to end the standoff over
Tehran’s nuclear program. Such decisions cannot be made by
Rouhani alone and must pass through Khamenei and the rest of the ruling
establishment, including the Revolutionary Guard. But pressure could
quickly mount to review Iran’s backing for Assad in a country that has
made the horrors of chemical attacks a centerpiece of its remembrances
of the 1980-88 war with Iraq, which was then backed by Washington. Iran
estimates 100,000 Iranian soldiers and civilians were exposed to Iraqi
chemical weapons, mostly mustard and nerve gases. Tens of thousands died
on the battlefields from chemical exposure and thousands more suffered
serious, and sometimes fatal, aftereffects such as skin lesions and
chronic breathing problems. “There seems to be deep division in
the Iranian leadership as to what to do with Assad,” said Meir
Javedanfar, a lecturer in Iranian affairs at the Interdisciplinary
Center in Herzliya, Israel. “The moderates seem to want to distance Iran
from him as he is becoming a serious diplomatic and financial
liability. The conservatives, headed by the Revolutionary Guard, seem to
want to continue supporting him, because they see everything and
anything to do with Syria as their turf.” The claims of chemical attacks by
Assad’s forces could “tip the balance,” he said. “The
last thing Iran needs right now is to be seen as the co-sponsor of a
regime which has carried out one of the biggest sectarian massacres in
this region,” said the Iranian-born Javedanfar. U.N. inspectors
investigating the alleged attack are expected to leave Syria on
Saturday. Speaking in Vienna, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged
for the team to complete its work and issue findings before any
decisions are made on possible military strikes. This could leave
Iran with more time do groundwork on two fronts: Stepping up the
warnings against possible retaliatory attacks by the U.S. and allies,
and trying to figure out Tehran’s response if the U.N. points the finger
at Assad. Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, has
started a speed-dial diplomacy effort with calls to at least 10
counterparts in Europe and the Arab world. “In the current
sensitive situation, preventing war is the best policy for Iran,” said
Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, a former lawmaker and currently a
Tehran-based political analyst. “Iran can do that through lobbying with
Russia, Western countries and indirect lobbying with the U.S.” This
mostly takes the form of dire warnings that the region could further
unravel if Western militaries directly act to cripple the Assad regime -
as they did in Libya in 2011 to allow rebel factions to turn the tide
against Muammar Gadhafi’s forces. Hussein Sheikholeslam, Iran’s
former ambassador to Damascus, told Iranian state TV that Western
military attacks against Syria will lead to an “extensive explosion of
events in the region.” Already, the Syrian civil war has brought serious
spillover. Western
governments are deeply worried over the rising profile of Islamists,
foreign jihadi fighters and al-Qaida-inspired militias among the rebels.
Lebanon’s Shiite Hezbollah militant group has intervened to fight on
the side of Assad, angering Arab Gulf states An editorial in the
hardline Kayhan newspaper by Hussein Shariatmadari, an adviser to
Khamenei, urged Syria to consider “possibilities and targets” such as
Gulf states and neighboring Israel and Turkey as part of its “legitimate
defense” in case of Western attacks. In the southwestern province of
Khuzestan, another Khamenei aide, Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Jazayeri, urged
for “soldiers of Islam” to support Syria if it came under Western
attack. But Iran’s political leadership has given more nuanced
signals, including speculation they could reassess their relations with
Assad if the chemical allegations are conclusively backed by the U.N.
team. “Iran, as a major victim of chemical weapons, is a pioneer
in fighting any kind of inhuman weapons across the world,” said Rouhani
at a Cabinet meeting Wednesday. “Iran strongly condemns any use of this
weapon.”
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