Al-Zarqawi death seen as one victory in long war
Thousands of insurgency groups still at work in Iraq

(CNN) -- While the death of al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-
Zarqawi is a blow to the insurgency in Iraq, even top U.S. military
leaders see it as one battle won in a long war.

"Although the designated leader of al Qaeda in Iraq is now dead, the
terrorist organization will continue to try to terrorize the Iraqi
people," Gen. George W. Casey Jr. said Thursday.

"The death of Zarqawi, while enormously important, will not mean the
end of all violence in that country," Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld said.

Reacting to al-Zarqawi's death, one Islamist Web site quoted an 
unnamed al Qaeda leader in Baquba as saying, "If Zarqawi is dead,
there will be a thousand Zarqawis that will be ready to take over the
helm of leadership."

Experts have said that although al Qaeda in Iraq received lots of
attention and headlines in the Western press, there are thousands of
small insurgency groups carrying out attacks in Iraq.

The effect of al-Zarqawi's death on those groups could have two 
effects, CNN's Octavia Nasr said.

"Some people say it will enrage the insurgency," Nasr said.

"Others say it will hurt pretty bad," Nasr said, because many Iraqis
have tired of the presence and methods of the foreign fighters who
make up most of al-Zarqawi's group.

Christiane Amanpour, CNN's chief international correspondent, said the
"wholesale slaughter" of civilians by al-Zarqawi's foreign fighters
had turned many Iraqis against the Jordanian-born leader. But many
Iraqis remain committed to the campaign against U.S. troops.

"There is a very entrenched and very able and constantly adapting
homegrown Iraqi insurgency," Amanpour said.

The challenge of Iraq's new government is to bridge the sectarian
divide in Iraq and unite Shiites and Sunnis.

"Sunni insurgents, Shiite militias and death squads. That is what's
really causing this cauldron there to boil, potentially out of
control," Amanpour said.

U.S. Sen. Joe Biden, D-Delaware, a member of the Senate Foreign 
Relations Committee, echoed that view.

"There are basically three places where we have real problems," Biden
said on CNN's "American Morning."

Biden cited the jihadists led by al-Zarqawi, "the 300,000 members of
the [former Iraqi] military that disbanded but kept their weapons, and
a significant portion of them are Sunnis, and they're the major part
of the insurgency," and militia death squads "that have been roaming
the country beheading people."

The latter two won't be slowed by the death of al-Zarqawi, Biden said,
and the sectarian divide in Iraq remains.

"I don't think you're going to find anybody in the Sunni area turning
in any Sunni for killing Shias. I don't think you're going to see
anybody in the Shia area turning in anyone who is a Shia who is part
of a death squad killing Sunnis," Biden said.

CNN's Henry Schuster called al-Zarqawi's group "the smallest but the
most spectacular and bloodiest part of the insurgency." And Zarqawi's
hands-on role -- he was suspected of being the person who beheaded
American hostage Nicholas Berg in a video posted on the Internet --
was helping recruit new members.

"A tribal sheik had told us just how compelling Zarqawi had become as
a figure to young Iraqis because he was a man of action," Schuster
said.

While attacks cannot be expected to stop and some Iraqis may seek to
emulate al-Zarqawi's martyrdom, CNN's Aneesh Raman reported that the
death of al-Zarqawi may help build the confidence of average Iraqis in
their government and in the ability of U.S. forces to protect them.

"When you speak to the soldiers on the front line trying to interact
with Iraqis, the key is building confidence," Raman said, "not just in
an Iraqi security force, but in the notion that the insurgency can and
will end.

"When that confidence exists, Iraqis start to give information about
people they know to be linked to the insurgency, attacks they know to
be pending."

Sources say the intelligence that led to the attack on al-Zarqawi came
from an Iraqi who was part of al Qaeda in Iraq.

CNN security analyst Richard Falkenrath, a former adviser to 
President Bush, said the al-Zarqawi operation may help U.S. 
intelligence agents get insurgents to turn on one another.

Captured insurgents, tricked into thinking "they've been ratted out,"
Falkenrath said, "reveal more information that can lead to further
captures."

It's the kind of tactic agents "would use against the Mafia," 
Falkenrath said. "They try to get them from within."

Still, that approach takes patience, he said.

"For the moment we should celebrate," said U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-
Arizona, "and recognize that we have a tough, long haul ahead."








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