http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/mud-volcano-threatens-ruin/2007/05/25/1179601669797.html
Mud volcano threatens endless ruin as magical solutions fail The roofs of what were once factories peek out of the lake of mud that has overtaken Sidoarjo in Indonesia's east Java. Photo: AAP Mark Forbes, Sidoarjo May 26, 2007 THEY come from all across Java - the prophets, the psychics and the pious - to cast spells, prayers and offerings into the massive mud lake that has subsumed nearly 700 hectares around the town of Sidoarjo. The ooze has forced more than 43,000 Indonesians from their homes. And still it flows. Dwarfed by an enormous dyke ringing the centre of the "mud volcano" they kneel before the bubbling ooze. Wearing a black headscarf and supported by a Javanese blend of Islam and mysticism, Sri Sunarti scatters water gathered from the grave of a 17th-century Muslim missionary. An ancient spirit, Semar, had told her she could halt the mud with prayer, Mrs Sunarti says. Others do not share her faith. Excavators continually reinforce the main dam as plumes of toxic gas rise overhead, with lava-hot mud shooting up to 30 metres. Authorities have barred more than two citizens from entering the site at a time and then they may only walk a few metres along an outer wall, one kilometre from the central dam. The sacrificial throwing of live cows, goats and chickens into the mud has been banned. A policeman guarding the site says groups from across Java often arrive to perform rituals. "I think they do show their sympathy to the people of Sidoarjo suffering from the mud," Officer Suryadi says. "But the problem for us is, after every ritual they did, the next day or a few days later we always have some leaks in the dams." One year ago on Tuesday a gas exploration well part-owned by Australian mining giant Santos blew, sending a geyser of mud and toxic gas into the air. Nearby villages and factories were flooded, a major highway and railway were covered and later East Java's main gas pipeline ruptured. Despite all attempts to plug the flow - drilling relief wells and even dropping chains of concrete balls into its centre - more and more mud spurts from the volcano, about 1 million barrels each day. The rising tide covered thousands more homes in March. It is the region's worst social and ecological mining disaster, according to leading Indonesian environmental watchdog, Walhi. The displaced await compensation, mitigation efforts are farcical and arguments continue about who will bear the multibillion-dollar cost. There is no end in sight. Optimists hope the mudflow could dissipate in 30 years, but experts suggest it may continue for centuries. Twenty-three kilometres of earth dams have been built in an unsuccessful attempt to contain the mud, 20 metres deep in parts, and channel it into the nearby Porong River then on to the sea. When The Age visited the site last week just a trickle of ooze dribbled from one of eight large pipes above the river. Director of operations of the mud disaster team, Sofyan Hadi, admits they are pumping only a fraction of what emerges from the volcano because the wrong pumps were installed. "They are used for water, not for mud," he said. The only short-term proposal is bigger, better pumps, with little immediate prospect of enacting President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's instructions to "kill" the mud flow, according to Mr Hadi. Experts have raised fears mud sediment could eventually choke the river mouth and trigger flooding in Indonesia's second largest city, Surabaya, during future rain seasons. "If the volume of water to go through Porong River is reduced, then the water will overflow in Surabaya," said Teguh Hariyanto, of Surabaya Technical Institute. "If there is an effort to normalise the Porong River, we don't have to worry, but what if there isn't?" He said Surabaya, which lies north of the disaster zone, could face flooding within the next two years if nothing was done to reduce the sedimentation. Arguments over fault and liability for the disaster have spread into Dr Yudhoyono's cabinet. Lapindo Brantos, which owns 50 per cent of the well, is a family firm of Minister for People's Welfare Aburizal Bakrie. Thirty-two per cent of the joint venture is held by another Indonesian company, Medco, with the remaining 18 per cent held by Santos. The Adelaide-based firm has now doubled its provisions for potential compensation payments to $A89 million - 18 per cent of predicted "mud management" costs - but admits there are no guarantees it will not blow out. It states that the provision is a "prudent estimate", but assumes all parties agree on long-term liabilities. Due to the "complexity of the incident and the dynamic nature of the ongoing work, there is significant uncertainty surrounding these issues", Santos warned in a report to shareholders. It states the final costs could be "significantly different". Under a presidential decree issued last month, Dr Yudhoyono says his Government will pay the billions in infrastructure costs arising from the mud flow, including relocating transport links. Direct mitigation of the mud flow and buying the land and houses it covers would be Lapindo's responsibility - an estimated $A540million. Parliamentarians have threatened to overturn the decree, complaining that all costs should be met by the miners. Walhi describes it as a political conspiracy to avoid corporate responsibility. Santos spokesman Chris Bennett says the company admits no liability and is aware of the political dynamics. But all requests to aid the mud clean-up program had been met "given the magnitude of the social dislocation", he says. As a minority shareholder, Santos had limited influence, Mr Bennett says, urging a greater focus on long-term "mud mitigation to prevent further social, economic and infrastructure degradation". Mr Bakrie has denied the mud volcano was caused by the gas bore - blaming an earthquake in Yogyakarta, more than 200 kilometres away, two days earlier - but said his company would compensate local victims because of "Indonesian values". His claims have been undercut by the third partner, Medco, which stated Lapindo's drillers were negligent in not inserting a casing around the gas bore, which would have enabled the flow to be plugged after the drill hit a huge mud bubble, pressurised by gas underneath. Medco launched a negligence lawsuit against Lapindo in America, but the case will not reach court after a Bakrie company bought out Medco's share of the well, and its liabilities, for a token fee last month. Last year Indonesia's Finance Minister blocked the Bakrie group's attempt to on-sell Lapindo to a shelf company offshore, believing it was an attempt to evade responsibility for the incident. Instead, Lapindo has launched a public relations offensive, funding a geological seminar and numerous studies. Only geologists who asserted the mud volcano was a natural phenomenon, unconnected to the drilling, were invited to contribute - if consensus emerges of a natural disaster, it should be a government not corporate responsibility, Lapindo argues. A police investigation has determined that negligence was to blame and recommended 13 Lapindo officials face criminal charges. Local prosecutors seem reluctant to proceed, sending the brief of evidence back twice for revision. Head of the Disaster Research Centre at the Surabaya Institute of Technology, geologist Amien Widodo, also has no doubts it was the failure to install a casing along the drill shaft that caused the disaster. "Because they don't use a casing, the mud went wild," he said. Sidoarjo's catastrophe is "just beginning" and with no known way to halt the mud flow it could continue for hundreds of years, he said. The only answer was to widen the disaster zone and use the mud to construct a gigantic crater, as it would do naturally, Mr Widodo said. From a great height, excess liquid could then be channelled into the Porong River. Most of the more than 43,000 victims await compensation, many in ramshackle, open-air refugee camps. Lapindo says it has paid more than $A180 million towards the clean-up, evacuation and rent and food relief. But only 185 people have been compensated for the loss of their homes. Lapindo says the problem is that locals must produce evidence of land ownership and most villagers lack official certificates. 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