http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/II27Ae05.html
Sep 27, 2007 Moment of truth for Myanmar's military By Brian McCartan SANGKLABURI, Thailand - Myanmar's military has made good on its threat to use force against mounting demonstrations that have now involved more than 100,000 people in the old capital Yangon, increasingly resembling the mass pro-democracy movement on which soldiers tragically opened fire in 1988. Troops outside Sule Pagoda opened fire at 2pm on Wednesday on Buddhist monks marching to the shrine. Reports conflict, but at least one monk was killed and another two either injured or killed. Other preliminary reports say that another three monks were shot and killed in Ahlone, a suburb of Yangon. Riot police also beat monks and protesters with batons, fired tear gas into crowds and let off warning shots over the heads of protesters, symbolically in front of Yangon's famed Shwedagon Pagoda. Dozens of protesters were reportedly arrested and dragged away into military trucks. Should the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) call on the army for further deadly action against protesters, the moment of truth will have come. Only with a split and revolt in the army will the monks and their swelling civilian supporters achieve their apparent goal of unseating the military dictatorship. This follows the movement of troops of the Light Infantry Division 22 into the city on Monday night. Soldiers were reported on Tuesday as taking up positions around the city hall and Sule Pagoda. Other soldiers were reported taking up positions in the city of Mandalay. Loudspeaker and television announcements warned people against joining the protests or the military would "take action", a euphemism that often means force. Other announcements were issued on Tuesday proclaiming a 9pm-to-5am curfew in Yangon and Mandalay and the assumption of direct military control over security. During the crackdown on the 1988 pro-democracy demonstrations, army units that had been brought into Yangon, then called Rangoon, were finally ordered to fire on unarmed demonstrators after weeks of anti-government protests. More than 3,000 civilians were reportedly killed across the country, with many thousands more wounded, arrested or driven into exile. In the weeks leading up to that crackdown, there was a strong hope that the army would see the light and come over to the side of the students and monks. Some individuals and units, especially from the air force, navy and police, joined the ranks of the protesters, but in the main the army stayed loyal to its officers. This loyalty did not, however, stop the soldiers and officers voting overwhelmingly for the pro-democracy National League for Democracy in 1990 elections. The then newly formed State Law and Order Restoration Council canceled the results of the election, claiming that a constitution must first be promulgated before a new government could take over. The fact that SLORC's National Unity Party had not won the elections was an eye-opener for the generals, who responded by rapidly increasing the size of the military and creating an increasingly militarized society. In the almost 20 years since, the army has grown to almost 500,000 men. Massive amounts of money have been poured into the military to purchase weapons systems and equipment from countries such as China, Russia and India. Army camps have sprouted up all across the country, both along the unstable border areas with China and Thailand where ethnic rebel armies operate and in central Myanmar. The police, fire departments and even civil-society organizations such and student and teachers' associations have been given military training. The army, and to a much lesser extent the air force and navy, maintain their monopoly on power through fear and intimidation and the strict control of information. To a large extent this has worked to stifle dissent for the past 19 years. At the basest level, the army holds almost all the guns and showed in 1988 its willingness to use them. An efficient intelligence network that has been able to infiltrate or co-opt many fledgling political opposition movements has only increased the military's ability to hold on to power and instill fear in the population. Although the intelligence apparatus underwent an extensive purge in 2004, the fear of spies remains a prominent feature among all in-country political activists. Yet the SPDC's control over the country is not absolute, as the current demonstrations have shown, and despite the army's claims of unity there are reports of growing divisions among the rank and file. The army itself runs on a culture of fear, with common soldiers afraid of their sergeants, sergeants afraid of their officers, lieutenants afraid of captains and so on up the chain of command. Myanmar Army documents obtained from ethnic rebel sources indicate that desertion is a serious problem and many battalions are operating at less than half-strength. Interviews with rank-and-file deserters reveal that internal corruption is rampant and many soldiers are deeply troubled by the human-rights abuses they are forced to witness and often perpetuate. In recognition of this, the army began a campaign in 2006 to raise morale among its soldiers by promoting movie halls and karaoke bars within its camps. There are also reports of dissatisfaction among the officer corps. Although officers are much better off than your average Myanmar citizen through their ability to extort money and the various perks bestowed on senior military officials, they are also often better educated and have more access to outside information. At least among the lower officer ranks, there is some support for change, although this is often subdued as the officers are corrupted through the system in their rise through the ranks. This is not to say there is not support for change among the higher echelons of the military. There is still pride among some officers at the army's role in achieving independence from colonialism and its role in safeguarding the country from external threats. But many believe the current regime has been corrupted. The purge of the more pragmatic ex-intelligence chief and prime minister General Khin Nyunt in 2004 may have made many officers more wary, but privately some still voice support for the political and economic change he championed. An emergency meeting of top military commanders was reportedly called on Tuesday by Senior General Than Shwe to discuss options. The top leadership is apparently divided on how to deal with the demonstrations, some analysts contend. Several exile-run media sources, notably the Irrawaddy and Mizzima, have claimed that Than Shwe is in favor of opening fire on the demonstrators, while other commanders, including the Yangon regional commander and the northwest and northeastern regional commanders, are in favor of restraint. However, it is unclear yet what exact course of action was decided on at the meeting, though the junta leadership obviously endorsed a more heavy-handed approach than witnessed in recent days. When Asia Times Online went to press, soldiers were still holding their fire and border sources report that only units from Division 22 held in reserve have been brought into the capital while the bulk of the division remains in frontline positions. So while the monks march and chant and increasing numbers of citizens come out to show their support for the protests, the real hope is that the army will not once again turn its guns on its own people. The stage is now all set, however; the demonstrations are growing, the army has been called out and is deploying units throughout Yangon and other important cities and warnings have been issued. The army now holds all the cards and the fate of Myanmar's protesting Buddhist monks and their civilian supporters hinges on whether some brave officers and soldiers will, if ordered, make the choice not to open fire and instead turn their guns on the junta's leadership and join the national call for change. Brian McCartan is a Thailand-based freelance journalist and can be contacted through [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] Post message: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subscribe : [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe : [EMAIL PROTECTED] List owner : [EMAIL PROTECTED] Homepage : http://proletar.8m.com/ Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/proletar/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/proletar/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
