Jadi, mnurut ayatollahini Irantidak akan kena krisis krisis yang melanda
dunia sekarng ini.....
-----
BBC NEWS
Iran celebrates global meltdown
By Jon Leyne
BBC News, Tehran
Amidst the financial wreckage around the world, one government is celebrating.
Watching the global gnashing of teeth, the Islamic Republic of Iran is enjoying
the ride.
"We are very happy that America's economy is in jeopardy and they are paying
the price for their misdeeds. God is punishing them."
That is the verdict from Ayatollah Jannati, one of the most senior clerics in
Iran.
President Ahmadinejad has pronounced on the collapse of global capitalism, and
announced that Iranians should stand ready to manage the world.
If there is a Persian word for "schadenfreude", this is it.
And for the moment, Iran does seem to be above the fray.
Shares on the Tehran stock exchange, while down slightly in recent trading,
have increased in value by 20% during the year.
In fact, to walk the floor of the Tehran Bourse, you could be excused for
thinking you are in a parallel universe.
It looks like a normal stock exchange, with a vast computerised screen
dominating the room and traders working from computer to phone to computer.
It is surely only a matter of time before the laws of gravity reassert
themselves on the Iranian economy
But share prices have been almost entirely unaffected by the credit crunch.
Stock market insiders told me what they were more interested in was the
progress of a government privatisation plan, and other domestic factors.
Bahrom, a stockbroker watching the trading floor, explained that the crisis
presented opportunities for Iran. He advised foreign investors to take a good
look at the market here.
Another stockbroker said the market here was more about politics than economics.
Any foreign investors tempted to join the party should be warned that foreign
investments need government approval, in a process that takes at least a month
- and that is probably an optimistic assessment.
Oil economy
Iran, of course, is proud of going against the global trend.
This is the only economy in the world - indeed possibly in world history - in
which you can borrow money from the bank and then receive a higher rate of
interest by depositing it in the same bank.
Mr Ahmadinejad, who says he is proud of his ignorance of economics, also seems
to believe the laws of supply and demand do not apply to the Islamic republic.
He insists the excess amounts of cash in the economy, excess liquidity, is in
no way to blame for the spiralling rate of inflation - 25% and counting.
In this particular case, however, it is surely only a matter of time before the
laws of gravity reassert themselves on the Iranian economy.
The direct impact of this financial crisis in the US for the Iranian
people, could actually be more than for the American people
Saeed Leylaz, economist
Despite a growing industrial sector, and other attempts to diversify, Iran is
still overwhelmingly dependent on its massive oil and gas reserves.
According to the BP survey, taken together this country has the largest
combined oil and gas reserves in the world, and it is the world's third largest
oil exporter.
Iran's oil minister said his country earned $70bn (£41bn) from oil exports last
year - the vast majority of both its export earnings, and of government revenue.
But with oil prices already down to around $60 (£35) a barrel from their peak,
and still falling, that must be bad news for Iran's finances.
Day of reckoning
In theory, in the good years Iran puts surplus oil revenue into a stabilisation
fund.
However, Mr Ahmadinejad's government found no trouble spending the money, even
as oil approached $150 (£88) a barrel.
It is not clear how much, or even whether any, of that windfall made it into
the deposit account.
Instead, as Mr Ahmadinejad toured the country he sprayed out money to the
provinces and local villages.
Vast contracts have been awarded to the Revolutionary Guards. Unspecified
amounts have been given, lent, or "invested" with Iran's friends both in the
Middle East and in Latin America.
What has happened to the money - you hear ordinary Iranians asking.
Now the day of reckoning may be approaching.
"The direct impact of this financial crisis in the United States for the
Iranian people, could actually be more than for the American people, because of
the oil price, and our dependency on oil income," explained Saeed Leylaz, one
of Iran's most outspoken and independent-minded economists
"If the oil price for Iranian oil will be $75 to $80 a barrel, we will lose
$50bn US dollars (a year) and that means we are losing between $700 and $800
per head."
We are in a recession. No-one wants to buy
Alireza Jahan, estate agent
In fact, Iranian oil, which trades slightly cheaper than the lighter crudes
that set the world benchmark, is now close to that price, and looks set to fall
further.
Already, even in plush north Tehran, you can see the signs of economic
downturn. There has been a huge property boom, with many grand old villas being
replaced by luxury apartment blocks.
But building work is beginning to grind to a halt. One estate agent told me
that prices were down 20% from their peak. Hundreds of thousands of apartments
are reported to be lying empty.
"We are in a recession. No-one wants to buy. Demand is very low and there are
many properties for sale," said the agent, Alireza Jahan.
No-one will have too much sympathy for Iran's property elite. And most Iranians
will be delighted at falling rents and property prices.
For them, life has been tough for as long as they can remember, with high
inflation and unemployment.
Social trouble
But this decline in the value of property could be the first sign of a wider
economic downturn that could have important social and political implications
for Iran.
Mr Leylaz spelt out what low oil prices could mean to Iran and its government:
"It means more liquidity, and more economic problems, more inflation. A worse
social gap, and social troubles for the country."
For Mr Ahmadinejad, there is the serious possibility of the money running low,
just as he runs for re-election - in a vote expected to be next June. If there
is no cash left to distribute, the fervour of his supporters could be severely
tested.
And if oil prices do hit rock bottom, that could also change the international
picture. Until now, one of the biggest constraints on the West, as it
challenges Iran, has been the danger of pushing oil prices through the roof.
Without that problem, many new possibilities open.
All of this will take some months to play out. For the moment, the money is
still coming in, and Iran's rulers can enjoy watching the world demoralised and
distracted.
But however much the Ayatollahs celebrate the downfall of global capitalism, it
could yet be that capitalism, eventually, bites back.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/middle_east/7663487.stm
Published: 2008/10/10 13:55:58 GMT
© BBC MMVIII
---------------
Jusfiq Hadjar gelar Sutan Maradjo Lelo
Allah yang disembah orang Islam tipikal dan yang digambarkan oleh al-Mushaf itu
dungu, buas, kejam, keji, ganas, zalim lagi biadab hanyalah Allah fiktif.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
------------------------------------
Post message: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subscribe : [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Unsubscribe : [EMAIL PROTECTED]
List owner : [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Homepage : http://proletar.8m.com/Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/proletar/
<*> Your email settings:
Individual Email | Traditional
<*> To change settings online go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/proletar/join
(Yahoo! ID required)
<*> To change settings via email:
mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
