http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/diplomats-dump-on-nearest-not-dearest-in-talks-with-us-20101214-18wx2.html

Diplomats dump on nearest, not dearest in talks with US 
Philip Dorling 
December 15, 2010 
 
Leaked ... Australia's views of its neighbours. 

AUSTRALIA'S top diplomats consider our neighbourhood deeply troubled, with 
China's leadership ''nervous, paranoid and uncertain'' but "running rings'' 
around a diplomatically ineffective Japan. Thailand is unstable, the 
Philippines is a "basket case" and East Timor a "burden".

The candid judgments of some of Australia's most senior and experienced 
diplomats are contained in the US record of secret political-military talks 
held between senior Australian and US officials in Canberra in October 2008.

The US record has been leaked to WikiLeaks and provided exclusively to the 
Herald. 

Discussions between the US assistant secretary of state for political-military 
affairs, Mark Kimmitt, and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade deputy 
secretary David Ritchie featured frank descriptions by Mr Ritchie of 
Australia's ''troubled neighbourhood . including an increase in illegal 
immigration from Indonesia . continuing political instability in Thailand; the 
basket case of the Philippines; the continuing burden of providing security and 
development assistance to East Timor; problems of bad governance in many of the 
Pacific Island states''.

The Department of Foreign Affairs' first assistant secretary for north Asia, 
Graham Fletcher, provided a broad political overview of China. "The elite, led 
by Hu Jintao, likely would retain control until 2012, when Hu would turn over 
the reins to one of his hand-picked successors,'' Mr Fletcher forecast.

"While China might look impressive externally, its internal politics were 
characterised by nervousness, paranoia and uncertainty. Nonetheless there were 
no major challenges to the ruling elite in the near term.''

The department's first assistant secretary for south-east Asia, Peter Woolcott, 
described the political situation in many countries in Australia's 
neighbourhood as ''messy'', and cited "significant problems in the Philippines, 
Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Burma''.

"The situation in Indonesia - Australia's most important regional partner - was 
'as good as it gets,' '' Mr Woolcott said. "[President Susilo Bambang] 
Yudhoyono . whom Australia wanted to see re-elected, had provided first-class 
co-operation on counterterrorism.''

Mr Woolcott described China's diplomatic efforts in south-east Asia as 
''impressive'', adding that "while most countries wanted a US presence as a 
hedge, they were comfortable with China's approach''.

"Japan's presence, by contrast, hardly registered, in part because it declined 
to invest political resources, such as visits by senior officials,'' Mr 
Woolcott said. At this point Mr Fletcher interjected that the Chinese were 
''running rings around Japan'' in south-east Asia.

Mr Ritchie said Japan was hampered by the legacy of World War II, "but also 
seemed unable to follow through on its initiatives; it was a major economic 
investor in the region but could not translate its investment into influence''.






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