http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1032/fr1.htm
20 - 26 January 2011
Issue No. 1032
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875
Tunisia echoes in the Arab street
The surprising success of the Tunisian revolt emboldened many in the Arab world
to press for more social and political justice. Dina Ezzat explores how
inspired they are
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Expectedly, the upheaval in Tunisia overshadowed yesterday's Arab
Economic Aummit in Sharm El-Sheikh whose agenda centred on ways of boosting
economic conditions throughout the Arab world. Chaired by President Mubarak,
top, the gathering included the emir of Kuwait, Tunisia's new Foreign Minister
Kamel Morjane and the presidents of Yemen, Sudan and Iraq. An air of tension
prevailed in Tunisia where protesters called for ousting the loyalists of
deposed president Bin Ali from the country's new government
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Having toppled their president, Tunisians are waking up to the demands of the
day after the crescendo of their revolution: ousting the remainder of the
regime of Zein Al-Abidine bin Ali, taking the corrupt entourage of the ousted
dictator and his political party to justice, and preparing for presidential
elections within two months.
"One way or another we are going to build a truly democratic regime. There are
still many questions about how things will work out, however," said a Tunisian
diplomat who preferred to remain anonymous.
Concluding their economic and social summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, on
Wednesday afternoon, Arab leaders renewed their commitment to development
strategies of their countries and pledged a $2 billion programme to boost
faltering economies and create new job opportunities for young Arabs.
President Hosni Mubarak, who chaired the meeting, stressed the importance of
economic cooperation as a national security requirement and said investment in
the Arab world's youth would bring future rewards, calling the young generation
"the most precious of all our resources and wealth".
The summit opened with impassioned remarks by Arab League Secretary-General Amr
Moussa that "the Arab soul is broken by poverty, unemployment and general
recession... This is in the mind of all of us."
"The Tunisian revolution is not far from us," Moussa warned. "The Arab citizen
has entered an unprecedented state of anger and frustration." He called for an
Arab "renaissance" to lift people from their frustration.
While working to put their house in order after a quarter of a century of the
Bin Ali police state, Tunisians might not be paying much attention to the
volume of political enthusiasm their Jasmine Revolution has induced into the
Arab street.
"It's not that we're expecting a revolution in every Arab country but we are
certainly monitoring a great deal of admiration of the Jasmine Revolution in
many Arab countries," said a Cairo-based foreign diplomat.
Admiration of the Tunisian elimination of the firm grip of Bin Ali is not all.
In several Arab cities, people have been inspired by the Tunisian revolution
and have started to take to the streets to demonstrate against social and
political injustice.
In Algeria, Libya, Jordan, Yemen and elsewhere in the Arab world there are
demonstrations -- albeit on a limited scale. The demonstrators' complaints are
being accommodated in these, and in other Arab capitals, with socio-economic
packages that seem to prioritise social sensitivity over economic reforms
prescribed by international organisations.
In Egypt, Mauritania and Algeria, individuals have set themselves on fire to
demonstrate poverty and unemployment, following the now considered heroic
example of Mohamed Bouaziz, the jobless Tunisian whose self-immolation ignited
his country's revolt.
"We are obviously being very alert about possible demonstrations that could be
prompted by any of these incidents. We are keeping our eyes wide open," said an
Egyptian security source. He added, however, that there are no indications of
any big demonstrations round the corner.
"I think it would be a bit too alarmist to expect the Tunis events to be
replayed blow-by-blow in any other Arab country," said a Cairo-based Arab
diplomat whose country has seen some socio- economic demonstrations over the
past few days.
This and other Arab diplomats who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of
anonymity shared a sense of unease on the part of some governments over a
possible stamina for Tunisia-style revolutions but insisted that each country
has its own political context and that revolutions cannot just be copy and
paste from one country to another.
Some of these Arab diplomats suggested that it won't be long before their
governments resume business as usual even if some economic reform plans have to
be spaced out, delayed or even cancelled.
"There also might be a tendency towards the expansion of freedom of the press
and more inclusion of the opposition," said one Arab diplomat whose country's
record of freedom is not subject to much international praise. He added that
the experience of some countries in using the media to "let off steam" might
also be copied.
According to a Western diplomat, however, "there was nobody in Tunis who
thought four weeks ago that Bin Ali would have been toppled -- nobody, not the
French, not the Americans, not anyone," he said. He added, "almost everybody
thought that Bin Ali would resort to firm coercive measures. He wanted to, but
his army let him down. That was not expected."
It was only when Bin Ali made his third appearance on TV to address the nation
and to promise considerable socio-economic and political reforms that some
started to question his ability to stand up to the demonstrations, said the
same diplomat. Twenty-four hours later, the Tunisian president fled the country
and with no clear destination of refuge.
Foreign diplomats who argue caution in speculating over a growing revolutionary
sentiment across the Arab world say constitutions were amended in several Arab
countries during the past few years to allow for a life-time presidency or for
scenarios of selected succession to power without much reaction by the
respective Arab peoples.
"So, I think it is unrealistic to say that following the Tunisian revolution
there will be a revolution in every Arab country," said another Western
diplomat.
According to a statement by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Doha
during her participation in the Forum for the Future, it is also unrealistic to
expect Arab peoples to continue succumbing to regimes that have long been
associated with corruption and dictatorship.
Clinton said that the situation is exacerbated by dwindling natural resources
and the difficulty of the region's large population of young people who are
caught between unemployment and limitations on the freedom of expression.
In some Arab countries, Clinton added, "people have grown tired of corrupt
institutions and a stagnant political order.
"The region's foundations are sinking into the sand," warned Clinton over the
weekend.
This said, there are still no indications, at least thus far, that this US
administration is prepared to change its low level of pressure to promote
democracy in the Middle East, not even at the inspiration of the Jasmine
Revolution.
And, to judge by European diplomats who spoke to the Weekly, there is no
evidence either that the EU is willing to go far in activating its call for
fast- track democratisation among its southern neighbours.
Stability and the exclusion of scenarios of Islamist rule remain a top priority
for all Western capitals concerned. Since the fall of the Bin Ali regime, Arab
and Western commentators have been arguing that the Jasmine Revolution should
serve as a reminder to many that there comes a moment when the will of the
people overcomes their fear of coercion.
To judge by the talk in diplomatic quarters this might be the thinking of some
Arab leaders today -- but maybe not for long.
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