http://www.theage.com.au/world/arab-rulers-face-hour-of-truth-reform-or-leave-20110129-1a90a.html

Arab rulers face hour of truth: reform or leave 
Soumaya Ghannoushi 
January 30, 2011 
WE ARE witnessing the breakdown of the Arab state. The Arab political 
establishment has never looked weaker. It is either dying a protracted silent 
death, or collapsing in thunderous explosions.

Tunisia, which toppled its dictator two weeks ago, is by no means an exception. 
The symptoms are evident throughout the region, from the protests in Egypt, 
Algeria and Jordan, or the increasing polarisation of Lebanon's sectarian 
politics, to the near-collapse of the state in Yemen and Sudan, and its 
complete disintegration in Somalia.

The postcolonial Arab state has always carried deficiency as part of its 
genetic make-up. It emerged as a substitute for the complex network of local 
elites, tribal chieftains and religious groupings through which imperial 
authorities had maintained their grip; and its mission was the regulation of 
the population. This system of indirect control specifically required a 
''state'' that was capable of keeping the population under check and 
maintaining ''stability'' at home, but too weak to disrupt foreign influence or 
disturb the regional balance of powers.

The first generation of postcolonial Arab leaders were able to soften the 
repressive nature of the Arab state by virtue of their charisma, and promises 
of progress. With their exit, and the entry of a new class of colourless 
autocrats and crude generals, the Arab state lost any cover of legitimacy, and 
became synonymous with oppression.

The turmoil plaguing the region today is traceable to its diseased political 
order. Its degeneration has wrought havoc on the social sphere too. It has led 
to weaker national identities, and to individuals reverting to their sectarian 
affiliations, sparking conflicts between Sunnis and Shiites, Arabs and Kurds, 
Copts and Muslims.

Beyond the Arab state's aura of physical might lurks a moral vulnerability and 
a dearth of popular allegiance. This paradox has been laid bare by protesters 
in Tunisia and Egypt. Demonstrators are discovering the frailty of the 
instruments of repression that have long crushed and suffocated them.

These events are harbingers of a change long impeded. Were it not for the 
international will to maintain the status quo, what happened in eastern Europe 
and the USSR in the late 1980s could have occurred in the Arab region too. Arab 
rulers - aided by foreign allies - have been able to steal more than two 
decades of their societies' political life. Today they face the hour of truth: 
either radically transform the structure of authoritarian Arab rule, or depart 
for ever. The trouble is, an entity that has made coercion its raison d'etre 
and violence its sole means of survival has left itself no option but to sink 
deeper in the quagmire of tyranny. And for its sponsors, who have made its 
preservation the cornerstone of their ''stability'' strategy, they have no 
choice but to blindly stick with their ''friends'' to the last breath. That is 
why those demonstrating on Arab streets feel they are not only rebelling 
against corrupt local despots, but against their foreign backers too. 

GUARDIAN

Soumaya Ghannoushi is a researcher in the history of ideas at the School of 
Oriental and African Studies in London.


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