http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=5&article_id=124572#axzz1D7WdW9lZ
Copyright (c) 2011 The Daily Star
Saturday, February 05, 2011
Barack Obama sees Egypt, but remembers Indonesia
By David Ignatius
As President Barack Obama watched events unfold this past week in Egypt and the
surrounding Arab world, he is said to have reflected on his own boyhood
experiences in Indonesia - when the country was ruled by a corrupt,
authoritarian leader who was later toppled by a reform movement.
Obama looks at the Egyptian drama through an unusual lens. He has experienced
dictatorship first-hand, a world where "the strong man takes the weak man's
land," as he quoted his Indonesian stepfather in his autobiography. The
president came of age reading Frantz Fanon and other theorists of radical
change. He is sometimes described as a "post-racial" figure, but it's also
helpful to think of him as a "post-colonial" man.
Obama's policy decisions over the past several weeks have been guided by a
sense that the fissures in Egyptian and Arab society have been building for a
long time, and that, as one person familiar with his thinking says, "this is
not something that can be put back in a box."
While Obama thinks it's important to protect American interests amid the
turbulence, he believes that as a democracy, the United States can't respond in
the narrow way that, say, China would. He is said to have ended several
meetings in the Situation Room over the past week with an admonition to think
broadly about the process of change that's under way now, and align U.S. policy
with these larger themes.
The formative experiences of Obama's life tell him that change in developing
countries is inexorable, and that reform can often succeed. Not every popular
movement turns out as disastrously as the Iranian revolution of 1979, Obama
believes. There are positive models, including the "people power" movement that
replaced Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines in 1986, the fall of the Berlin
Wall in 1989 and the overthrow in 1998 of the dictatorial President Suhartro in
Indonesia, whom Obama remembers from his boyhood.
What shapes Obama's thinking isn't ideological so much as personal: When he
talks to human-rights activists from overseas, he often recalls what it was
like to live in an authoritarian country - where even in seemingly calm times,
there was an omnipresent fear and tension. His Indonesian stepfather, Lolo,
once admitted that he had seen a man killed "because he was weak."
The lesson that Obama takes from Indonesia's democratic revolt is that when the
grip of authoritarian government has been loosened, it can't easily be
restored: A catharsis takes place that, over time, can lead to better
governance and economic growth.
If Obama hasn't publicly articulated these broad themes lately, that's partly
due to the rush of events - and also because of his reticent manner. He is not
a man who likes to govern by anecdote. Critics have argued that Obama has been
too slow to embrace the Egyptian protest movement. But he seems genuinely to
believe that change is a matter for Egyptians, not Americans, and that too
heavy an American hand would be counterproductive.
For a statement of the strategic ideas that guide Obama now, it's useful to
re-read his Cairo speech of June 4, 2009. The premise of that celebrated
address was that America's relationship with the Islamic world was broken.
"I've come here to Cairo to seek a new beginning between the United States and
Muslims around the world, one based on mutual interest and mutual respect,"
Obama said. That's still the baseline, but it's fair to say that the Cairo
speech raised expectations in the Arab world without delivering on them.
Indeed, this may be one modest factor in the "revolution of rising
expectations" we are seeing on the streets in Tunis, Cairo, Sanaa and Amman.
Obama's personal history gives him a unique opportunity to connect with the
young generation that is making this volatile revolution. But it also makes
Obama uniquely vulnerable to the charge that he is putting American security
second to his hopes for an ephemeral process of change that could prove
disastrous for American interests. The scenes this week of young protesters
manning the barricades in Tahrir Square evoked "Les Miserables" or "Dr.
Zhivago." But we know those stories turned out badly for the good guys.
Obama's challenge is to use his life experience - and his unusual ability as a
communicator - to brace this process of change. He can identify with the
idealistic young rebels in the street, but he also needs to reassure the world
that American power is a steadying force at a time of upheaval.
Syndicated columnist David Ignatius is published twice weekly by THE DAILY STAR.
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