Bahrain protests prompt global concerns
By Bill Law Reporter, Crossing Continents

Protest at Pearl Roundabout, Manama, 15 Feb Bahrainis tried to create their own 
version of Egypt's Tahrir Square

As protests continue in the tiny gulf state of Bahrain, home to the US Fifth 
Fleet, the Americans and Saudi Arabia are monitoring events there very closely.

The country, with an indigenous Shia-majority population, is ruled by a Sunni 
royal family, the al-Khalifas.

As events in Egypt gathered pace, human rights activists in Bahrain called for 
a day of rage on 14 February.

The result on Monday was sporadic protests in Shia villages across the island 
and attempts to create a "Tahrir Square movement" in central Manama, the 
capital.

Footage shot by protesters and posted on the internet shows riot police 
attacking peaceful demonstrators with tear gas and rubber bullets.

Thus far, the government is continuing to respond with harsh tactics. Dozens of 
protesters have been wounded and two killed.

A 21-year-old man died on Monday after being hit by a rubber bullet. On 
Tuesday, at a funeral march to protest against his killing, a second man was 
hit by a shotgun blast and died.
Constitution calls

Although protesters have been routinely beaten and tear-gassed by security 
forces in the past, these deaths are the first of their kind in several years, 
and are likely to add fuel to a growing anger among ordinary Bahrainis.

The demonstrators, many waving the Bahraini flag, are calling for a new 
constitution, the release of hundreds of Shia men and boys who have been 
rounded up since August 2010 and an end to civil rights abuses.

The king went on state television promising to investigate the deaths of the 
two protesters and offering to set up a committee to discuss change.

"Too little, too late," was the blunt analysis of Nabeel Rajab of the Bahrain 
Centre for Human Rights.

"Yesterday the people were calling for reform. Today they are saying: 'Change 
the regime.'"

However, Western analysts caution that an Egyptian-style revolution is unlikely 
to unfold in Bahrain.

Gala Riani, a senior Middle East analyst at Jane's Defence Weekly says: 
"Bahrain is not unused to this kind of unrest.

"The authorities will be able to handle it, as they have in the past, if it is 
sectarian in nature."

But that could be a big if.
Women involved

Journalist Reem Khalifa, a senior editor with the Bahraini newspaper Al Wasat, 
says this time the protests are different.

"Young Sunni and Shia are marching together and they are shouting 'neither 
Sunni nor Shia but Bahraini'. We have not seen this before,'" she says.
Bahraini women demonstrate in the village of Duraz, outside the capital of 
Bahrain, Manama, 14 February 2011 Demonstrators want a new constitution, the 
release of prisoners and an end to civil rights abuses

She adds that women are much more involved in the protests. One reason is that 
they are less likely to be manhandled by the security forces.

Even so, Ms Khalifa says she saw one woman who had approached a security line 
with a Bahraini flag being roughed up.

The security police are largely non-Bahraini. They are Sunni Muslims recruited 
from Pakistan, Yemen, Syria and Jordan.

Fast-tracked to citizenship and given preferential treatment, they are 
infuriating protesters.

One protester told me: "Some of [the security police] don't even speak Arabic. 
They have no respect for the people.

"They have no loyalty to the flag. Their only loyalty is to their paymasters."

Saudi intervention?

Meanwhile, American president Barack Obama may have another headache on his 
Middle East plate. The Fifth Fleet is seen as a bulwark against the rising 
threat of Iran.

As in Egypt, US policy has been to ignore the often legitimate grievances of 
Bahrainis in favour of stability and support for a repressive regime.
Demonstrators chant in the village of Duraz, outside the capital of Bahrain, 
Manama, 14 February 2011. Bahrain's majority Shias have complained of 
discrimination by the governing Sunni dynasty

But if these protests transcend the sectarian divide and the Bahraini 
government responds with ever more brutal tactics, Washington will be put in a 
very difficult place - to support the government will be to deny the democratic 
aspirations of yet another Arab nation.

And Saudi Arabia is even more nervous - a causeway links the kingdom to Bahrain.

An expert with close ties to the powerful Saudi Interior Minister Prince Nayef 
told me the Saudi government will intervene if the situation "gets out of hand".

Gala Riani of Jane's Weekly concurs, saying the Saudis would not be loath to 
lend support - and in a worst-case scenario to intervene directly - should the 
Bahraini authorities not be able to control the demonstrations.

That would add a nightmarish twist to Barack Obama's growing Middle East 
dilemma at a time when instability is rapidly outpacing American strategy in 
the region.



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