http://www.theage.com.au/world/point-of-no-return-20110221-1b2gn.html
Point of no return Ian Black and Ian Birrell February 22, 2011 Muammar Gaddafi in 1999. Photo: Reuters Despotic regimes are falling like dominoes across the Middle East. But Libya's Muammar Gaddafi won't give up without a fight. NOW people are dying we've got nothing else to live for,'' wrote a student blogger in Libya. ''It's like a pressure cooker. People are boiling up inside. I'm not even afraid any more. Once I wouldn't have spoken at all by phone. Now I don't care.'' It is a sentiment that encapsulates so much of the extraordinary events sweeping the Middle East. As the revolt in Libya widens, and more Libyans summon up the courage to confront their ''Great Leader'', Muammar Gaddafi has launched by far the most uncompromising response of all the Arab leaders in the region to anti-government protests. In neighbouring Egypt and Tunisia the military proved extremely reluctant to open fire on their own citizens, a factor that made a significant contribution to the subsequent removal of the countries' leaders. But in Libya, where Gaddafi's brutal regime is enforced by a combination of his diehard supporters and well-paid foreign mercenaries, the security forces are under no such constraints and have deployed tanks and helicopter gunships to crush the dissent. In the most serious challenge to Gaddafi's 41 years of rule, thousands have taken to the streets in Benghazi, Libya's second-largest city, only to be met with gunfire from forces loyal to their leader. Hundreds of bodies are turning up at hospitals and morgues, young men are throwing home-made bombs at soldiers using heavy-calibre weapons, while airport runways are sabotaged to prevent the arrival of more troops. In al-Bayda, there are reports of blood on the streets, smoke rising from buildings and the authorities are thought to have lost control. One of Muammar Gaddafi's many sons, Saif al-Islam, went on state television on Sunday to warn that a civil war would put the country's oil wealth at risk. Libya, he said, is ''not Tunisia and Egypt''. Libya, holder of the largest crude oil reserves on the African continent, has become the focal point of region-wide protests ignited by the ouster of Tunisia's president last month and energised by the fall of Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak last week. Violence has flared in Yemen, Djibouti and Bahrain as governments sought to crack down on calls for reform. There were also demonstrations in Morocco over the weekend and Iran, where thousands of security personnel were deployed in the capital, Tehran, to forestall an opposition rally. Elsewhere in the region, unrest hit Yemen, Morocco, Oman, Kuwait and Algeria. Analysts are warning of the risk of unrest spreading to Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter. But the most violent scenes so far of the wave of protests sweeping the Arab world were seen in its most repressive country as Gaddafi appeared to be relying on brute force to crush what began last week as peaceful protests. Libya is defying growing international condemnation of a bloody crackdown in which troops and mercenaries fired at unarmed demonstrators. In Benghazi and elsewhere in eastern Libya over the past few days shocked witnesses talked of ''massacres'' and described corpses shot in the head, chest or neck piling up in hospitals running short of blood and medicines. Some opposition sources say it is closer to 500 dead. Two of Gaddafi's other sons, Khamis - the Russian-trained commander of an elite special forces unit - and Saadi, and veteran intelligence chief Abdullah Sanussi were understood to have spearheaded efforts to crush the protests in Benghazi, where buildings were ransacked and troops and police forced to retreat to a compound to pick off demonstrators with sniper and artillery fire. Facts have been hard to pin down in Libya in the face of a news blackout that included jamming of the signal of the al-Jazeera satellite TV network and interference with telephone and internet connections. But there have been multiple claims of the army firing into crowds and the targeting of mourners at the funerals of those killed on Saturday. The US, Britain and the EU have expressed concern at the escalation in violence, but no punitive measures have been announced. On Friday Britain revoked licences for the export of riot control equipment. Libya responded by warning the EU it would halt co-operation over illegal immigration unless the EU stopped supporting protests. William Hague, Britain's Foreign Secretary, spoke to reform-minded Saif al-Islam and expressed alarm at reports of large numbers of people being killed or attacked by Libyan security forces. He said the Libyan government's actions ''were unacceptable and would result in world-wide condemnation''. Hague strongly encouraged the Libyan government to embark on dialogue and implement reforms. ''It is too late for dialogue now,'' said a Benghazi resident who has taken part in the demonstrations but refused to be named. ''Too much blood has been shed. The more brutal the crackdown will be, the more determined the protesters will become.'' Facing the worst unrest since the revolution, Gaddafi's moves are as opaque as ever. Amid feverish speculation about the future, everything he has ever done suggests he will not relinquish power voluntarily. Indeed, the uprisings in neighbouring countries do not appear to have shaken his resolve to stay in power. He sent messages of support to Tunisia's Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and to Egypt's Hosni Mubarak before they stepped down. ''We will all die on Libyan soil,'' sources close to his family told al-Sharq al-Awsat on Sunday. Regime survival has marked Gaddafi's moves in recent years - from the handover of the Lockerbie bombing suspects to the surrender of his weapons of mass destruction program after the invasion of Iraq in 2003. No one expects him to give up peacefully. He may make gestures such as promising closer consultation or boosting investment in social services, but that seems unlikely to satisfy protesters after such brutality towards ordinary Libyans. ''Gaddafi will find it hard to make concessions in order to survive,'' says Sir Richard Dalton, a former British ambassador to Libya. ''The attitude of the regime is that it's all or nothing.'' Libya, once treated as a pariah, has been embraced by Western countries hungry for oil since Gaddafi abandoned his support for terrorism, but there has been very little easing of domestic repression. Libya's official name may be the Jamahiriya, or ''state of the masses'', but a defiant Gaddafi still rules through secretive decision-making and as a family enterprise in which his sons play leading roles. Last Friday Gaddafi appeared briefly in central Tripoli to cheers from supporters but has not spoken in public or left the heavily guarded Bab al-Aziziya barracks in the centre of the capital - the target of a US bombing raid in 1986. Analysts say the crushing of protests in Benghazi and elsewhere bears the hallmark of his instinctive brutality when faced with challenges to his rule. In the 1980s he sent hit squads to murder exiled ''stray dogs'' who challenged the revolution. Islamist rebels at home were crushed in the 1990s and in 1996, 1000 prisoners were gunned down in a prison massacre. ''For Gaddafi it's kill or be killed,'' says opposition writer Ashour Shamis. ''Now he's gone straight for the kill.'' Indeed, there is only one certainty amid the bloodshed. Gaddafi will do whatever he can to protect his own skin. After all, this is a man who had political opponents murdered, crushed a jihadist rebellion, funded global terrorism and waged war on his neighbours. He has ordered his military to execute those wounded in battle to ensure they were not seen by Libyan citizens on the streets. Ordinary Libyans have little say in the running of their country. Power in Libya is devolved in some areas to popular committees and there is sometimes talk of dramatic restructuring of government. But all key policy areas - defence, foreign affairs and security - are firmly in Gaddafi's hands. People are furious at the way Gaddafi's self-styled revolution has destroyed their education system, ruined the health services and encouraged a culture of rampant corruption centred on his family and friends and members of his tribe. Oil wealth has raised living standards but youth unemployment is rife, while jobs and business deals depend on connections. Since the turmoil in Egypt it is clear Gaddafi has felt threatened. He flooded the streets with his secret police - the one part of the state that works with fearsome efficiency - and summoned journalists and activists to personally warn them against fomenting trouble. Checkpoints were set up on the roads and the mood in the country became tense. Ultimately, the events in Libya are a gruesome test of strength between protesters desperate for change and a regime desperate to cling to power. Oliver Miles, a former British ambassador to Libya, wrote in The Guardian newspaper yesterday: ''Assuming that the Libyan protesters have the stamina and determination of those in Tunisia and Egypt, even in the face of gunfire, the resolution of the conflict seems to depend on two factors: will the disturbances spread to the different urban environment of Tripoli? And will the army - composed of Libyans, not foreign mercenaries, and therefore open to tribal influences which are largely unknown - continue to be willing to fire on unarmed civilians?'' GUARDIAN, TELEGRAPH and AGENCIES [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ Post message: [email protected] Subscribe : [email protected] Unsubscribe : [email protected] List owner : [email protected] Homepage : http://proletar.8m.com/Yahoo! 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