Thursday February 24th 2011

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Endgame in Tripoli
The bloodiest of the north African rebellions so far leaves hundreds dead
Feb 24th 2011 | TUNIS | from the print edition


IT WAS vintage Muammar Qaddafi. After a blood-soaked week of unrest, Libya's 
leader delivered a rambling, hectoring, fist-pounding speech on February 22nd. 
He blasted the popular uprising that has left hundreds dead and torn much of 
the vast north African nation from his grasp as the work of drug addicts and 
agents of al-Qaeda and America. He shouted that he would never surrender and 
ordered his men to hunt these "greasy rats" from house to house, without mercy, 
and take what they wanted. Then he drove off in an electric golf buggy.

After 41 years of his violently capricious rule, Libya's 6.5m people know Mr 
Qaddafi well enough to take him seriously. No one expects him to go quietly, as 
the presidents of neighbouring Egypt and Tunisia did. In the densely populated 
region around the Libyan capital, Tripoli, marauding gangs loyal to the regime, 
backed by African mercenaries and well-armed troops commanded by Mr Qaddafi's 
son, Khamis, have spread enough terror to stall the momentum of the street 
protests that began on February 15th. For now Mr Qaddafi appears safe at his 
headquarters, within the triple walls of the sprawling Bab al-Aziziya barracks 
near the city centre.

State television remains in denial, broadcasting rallies in support of the 
leader, and armed men are intimidating doctors and taking bodies from the 
streets in an effort to cover up the scale of the deaths. Yet if Mr Qaddafi 
thinks he can make a comeback, he is surely mistaken. One by one, the pillars 
of his regime have crumbled. After days of clashes between unarmed protesters 
and government forces, the whole of Cyrenaica, the country's fertile eastern 
coastal region, has fallen under rebel control (see article). Many army units 
have mutinied. Two Libyan air force pilots have defected to Malta, taking their 
aircraft with them and claiming that they had refused orders to bombard 
Benghazi, Cyrenaica's main city.

Oil production has slumped (see article) and the economy has ceased to 
function, not least because thousands of the foreign workers who keep it 
running have fled, been evacuated, or are trying desperately to leave. 
Britain's government has been accused of doing too little to get its citizens 
out, while fear of reprisals against American oil workers persuaded President 
Barack Obama to say nothing about Libya until February 23rd, when he condemned 
the violence, but took no action.

The ministers of interior and justice, numerous Libyan diplomats and a senior 
aide to Saif al-Islam, the most prominent of Mr Qaddafi's seven sons, have all 
resigned and declared allegiance to the protest movement. The uprising may even 
have penetrated Mr Qaddafi's inner circle at Bab al-Aziziya, where it is said 
only one brigade remains loyal to him. Leaders of some of Libya's biggest 
tribal groups, important constituencies in a country that has only recently 
urbanised, have openly turned against him. In the region and worldwide, Libya's 
"Brother Leader" has few friends any more. Governments of all stripes have 
condemned his tactics against civilian protesters, reportedly including the 
deployment of helicopter gunships, snipers and heavy-calibre machineguns.
Explore our interactive map and guide to the Arab League countries

Events in Libya unfolded as they have elsewhere. They began with peaceful 
street protests, word of which spread on the internet, and accelerated 
dramatically when security forces responded with deadly force. Libya's 
government also severed communications, blaming foreign meddlers, warning of 
chaos, and suggesting that reforms are in the offing.

Even the televised speeches by Saif al-Islam and Mr Qaddafi himself, while more 
chilling in tone, echoed performances by Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia and 
Hosni Mubarak of Egypt. Both addressed their people with a mix of conciliation 
and defiance. Both, like Mr Qaddafi, referred to themselves in the third person 
and belittled the scale and intensity of the opposition. And both then abruptly 
left office.

Yet Libya is a very different place from its neighbours along the 
Mediterranean. Its territory and wealth are greater, its population sparser, 
its sense of nationhood more fragile. Libya's history has been far more 
traumatic, too. As many as a quarter of its people died, many of disease and 
starvation in concentration camps, during three decades of Italian invasion and 
colonial rule that ended with the second world war. The first 20 years of Mr 
Qaddafi's rule, after a coup he led as a young soldier in 1969, brought 
wrenching social change. He tried to impose his Third Universal Theory, a sort 
of Bedouin socialism that exalted the destruction of state bureaucracy, 
confiscated wealth and empowered "peoples' committees" as the sole form of 
government.

Mr Qaddafi broke resistance to his policies with a campaign of random terror 
against "stray dogs", as he labelled dissidents. Dozens, both in Libya and 
abroad, were murdered by his agents. Thousands fled into exile. Much of the 
country's income from oil, which soared in the 1970s, was wasted on arms 
purchases and sponsorship of revolutionary movements around the world. Some 
4,000 Libyan soldiers are believed to have died, for no gain, during Mr 
Qaddafi's repeated interventions in neighbouring Chad.

In the late 1980s Libya fell under international sanctions after Mr Qaddafi was 
charged with sponsoring the mid-air bombing of two passenger aircraft, French 
and American, with the loss of more than 400 lives. In the 1990s hundreds more 
Libyans died during a brutal campaign against Islamist radicals. Most of the 
killings were in Cyrenaica, where resentment against Mr Qaddafi also stemmed 
from economic neglect, the attachment that some retain to the royal family he 
overthrew, and the fact that Cyrenaica has historically been independent of 
western Libya.

Mellowing, but not changing

In recent years Mr Qaddafi has appeared to mellow. As it became clear that 
state-owned enterprises were failing to supply markets, his regime abandoned 
radical socialism, inviting foreign investment and encouraging private 
business. International sanctions were lifted after Mr Qaddafi accepted 
responsibility for the airliner bombings, paid compensation and surrendered two 
of his agents for trial. He agreed to halt research into nuclear and chemical 
weapons. He began to cultivate an image as the wise man of Africa, playing host 
to other leaders. He invited some exiles to return, and allowed his son Saif to 
present himself as the kinder face of the regime.

Yet the underlying nature of his rule did not change. Behind the confusing veil 
of peoples' committees, the reality was that Libyans were denied any meaningful 
role in politics. For a country with the largest oil reserves in Africa, they 
were surprisingly poor. The government supplied shoddy housing, free cars, 
schooling and health care, but state salaries seldom exceeded $500 a month and 
the economy sucked in some 1.5m foreign labourers. Young Libyans struggled to 
find useful employment. Meanwhile, as in Egypt and Tunisia, Mr Qaddafi's 
relatives and cronies monopolised many of the most lucrative business 
opportunities. And Libya's security services still inspired fear.

Nor, as has now become abundantly clear, had Mr Qaddafi really changed his 
stripes. As far back as 1975 he told an audience of students that he rose to 
power by force as the leader of a revolution and could only be removed by 
force. In one of the concluding passages of his Green Book, a 
stream-of-consciousness promoted as a blueprint for his leadership, Mr Qaddafi, 
with a characteristic mix of bluntness and illogic, declared that his ideology 
was "theoretically" a genuine democracy, but in reality, "the strong always 
rule." "I was the one who created Libya," he is said to have declared recently, 
"and I will be the one to destroy it." In the typical fashion of dictators, 
Libya's leader appears to be confusing his own person with the nation as a 
whole.

There is little doubt that Libya, even without Mr Qaddafi, will remain a messy 
and possibly violent place. His rule has burdened it with a legacy of 
inadequate institutions, tangled laws and burning animosities. Sorting through 
this wreckage will take time, energy and ingenuity. Yet Libya does have some 
things going for it. It has plenty of cash, with foreign reserves alone 
totalling nearly $140 billion. Its talented exiles are eager to return. And, in 
a sense Mr Qaddafi is unlikely to have foreseen, the trauma of his rule may 
have forged a national identity much more heartfelt than it was before.




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