> ayub yahya <ayubyahya@...> wrote: > bisa jadi hezbollah lagi berdoa dan > berharap ada demokrasi di arab > btw, apakah islamnya hezbollah sunni > juga ?
Hezbollah itu Islam aliran Syiah yang berhasil menguasai Libanon menggeser kekuasaan Islam sunni. Mereka berasal dari satu jenis Islam dengan Hamas yang juga sama2 syiah yang didukung oleh Iran. > > > > --- On Tue, 3/1/11, sunny <ambon@...> wrote: > > > > > http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/27/AR2011022702871.html?wpisrc=nl_opinions > > > > In Lebanon, Hezbollah is watching, and waiting out, the Arab uprisings > > > > By David Ignatius > > Monday, February 28, 2011 > > > > BEIRUT > > > > To visit Hezbollah officials, you turn left off the airport road, just past a > billboard that shows Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad coyly waving at > motorists. You then enter a neighborhood known as the "southern suburbs," > which is the dense street fortress of the Shiite militia. > > > > Here lies the headquarters of the group that now forms the strongest bloc in > Lebanon's parliament. It's an unusual situation, to put it mildly: The > Lebanese government is dominated by an organization that the United States > and Israel designate as "terrorist." What's more, Hezbollah's ascendancy has > given its patrons in Tehran what amounts to a beachhead on the Mediterranean, > whose sparkling waters are just west of the militia's stronghold. > > > > Understanding Hezbollah is like watching a play of shadows; its real actions > are hidden. The organization likes having power, and its military wing (which > it insists is solely a "resistance" force against Israeli troops to the > south) is stronger than the Lebanese army. But it doesn't want responsibility > for decisionmaking commensurate with its power, as I discovered in > conversations with several Hezbollah officials. > > > > I met last week with Ammar al-Mousawi, the top Hezbollah "diplomat," and > several of his subordinates in the organization's international department. > This was an "unofficial" visit, so I can't directly quote Mousawi or his > colleagues. But the discussion illustrated the thinking of the toughest > player in the world's toughest political league. > > > > Hezbollah appears to realize that the revolt sweeping the Middle East has > subtly changed the game for them. Officials see the Arab world moving into a > more democratic and pluralistic politics with the fall of regimes in Tunisia, > Egypt and perhaps Libya. In this new environment, Hezbollah doesn't want to > be seen as a sectarian militia or a wrecker, but as a democratic partner > (albeit a potent one that has thousands of missiles pointed at Israel). > Because Tunisia, Egypt and Libya are Sunni countries, recent events can be > seen in part as a Sunni political resurgence, which Hezbollah must respect. > > > > The first order of business for Lebanon's Hezbollah-dominated government will > be the delicate matter of the United Nations inquiry into the 2005 murder of > former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri. A U.N. special tribunal has been > investigating the case, and news reports have predicted that it will release > indictments soon that will name members of Hezbollah among those responsible. > > > > To gain leverage against the tribunal, Hezbollah in January forced out > Hariri's son Saad as prime minister. He will be replaced by Najib Mikati, a > former prime minister who is one of Lebanon's most successful businessmen and > is close to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Mikati has said he will support > the U.N. Security Council, which presumably includes the tribunal. But > Hezbollah seems assured that the practical effect of any indictments will be > blunted and that the matter will be left unresolved in characteristic > Lebanese fashion. > > > > Hezbollah officials seemed surprisingly low-key about the tribunal last week. > Officials said there is consensus on the need for justice for Hariri's death > but disagreement about the mechanism. This has the effect of kicking the > problem down the road to Mikati, and avoiding any direct Hezbollah > fingerprints on strangling the tribunal. > > > > The tribunal issue illustrates the frustrations of Lebanese politics. There's > never an address for assigning responsibility. The buck doesn't stop > anywhere. Perhaps Mikati, with his business background, can deal with this > accountability problem. > > > > So eager is Hezbollah to avoid responsibility for unpopular decisions that > officials object to descriptions of the new government as > Hezbollah-controlled. And they pointedly decline to endorse the tactics of > their coalition partner, retired Lebanese general Michel Aoun, who is > challenging President Michel Suleiman for leadership of the country's > Christian community. > > > > Does Hezbollah see any doors to the West opening in the post-Tahrir Square > environment? Is a Middle East "restart" possible that might allow gradual > engagement with, say, the United States? I didn't hear much enthusiasm for > that idea, but Hezbollah doesn't oppose a continuation of military > cooperation between Lebanon and the United States. Indeed, Hezbollah > mischievously says that perhaps the Lebanese army should have more U.S. > weapons - surely knowing that America would never provide them so long as > Hezbollah is the strongest political force in town. > > > > Hezbollah is a ruthless political player, but it's a mistake to underestimate > the finesse of its tactics. Officials insist that no matter what the West may > think, the Shiite militia is logical (meaning self-interested) in pursuing > its policies. And the ever-logical Hezbollah seems to realize that even the > self-styled "resistance" must make adjustments in this period of Arab > upheaval. > > > > davidignatius@... > > > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] > ------------------------------------ Post message: [email protected] Subscribe : [email protected] Unsubscribe : [email protected] List owner : [email protected] Homepage : http://proletar.8m.com/Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/proletar/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/proletar/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: [email protected] [email protected] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [email protected] <*> Your use of Yahoo! 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