Arm the Libyan rebels to fight Gadhafi
By Angel M. Rabasa, Special to CNN
March 24, 2011 -- Updated 1116 GMT (1916 HKT)
tzleft.rabasa_angel.jpg
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Angel Rabasa: U.S. should arm the Libyan rebels so they can resist
Gadhafi's forces
He says a similar move in Bosnia helped end that conflict
U.S. should recognize Benghazi government as the legitimate ruler of Libya
He says involvement on the side of democracy in Libya would be good for the
U.S.
Editor's note: Angel M. Rabasa, a member of the Bosnia Train and Equip Task
Force in the early 1990s, is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corp., a
nonprofit institution whose mission is to help improve policy and
decision-making through research and analysis.
(CNN) -- The no-fly zone and air strikes on military targets of the Gadhafi
regime bear close parallels to events in Bosnia in autumn, 1995, when NATO air
strikes and the threat of further attacks halted the Bosnian Serb military
onslaught against Bosnian Muslim targets.
If effective, the international action might prevent the Gadhafi forces from
crushing the rebellion in Libya, but it will not end the conflict.
The Gadhafi regime retains overwhelming military superiority over the
Benghazi-based Interim National Council. Unless the military imbalance is
redressed, Gadhafi will retain the ability to threaten or renew his attacks on
his opposition. As long as this situation persists, international military
involvement in Libya -- to enforce the no-fly zone and prevent ground attacks
by Gadhafi's forces -- will likely have to continue.
What the United States did in Bosnia might hold the key for an effective
response to the crisis in Libya. In Bosnia, the United States sought to redress
the military balance, which since the onset of the war in 1992 had heavily
favored the Bosnian Serb army.
Opinion: Libya coalition sparks fierce debate
To restore balance and create conditions for lasting peace in Bosnia, it was
necessary to establish a capable Bosnian Federation army. A "train and equip"
program was implemented by a small interagency group based in the State
Department.
Should coalition support Libyan rebels?
Battle for Ajdabiya
Gadhafi tanks turned into wreckage
What could be the end game in Libya?
RELATED TOPICS
Libya
Benghazi
The Balkans
Moammar Gadhafi
Despite the Europeans' skepticism and dislike for the program, it succeeded.
The program raised donations of several hundred million dollars from Muslim
countries, supervised the purchase of military equipment for the armed forces
of the Federation and arranged for a U.S. contractor to train Federation
troops. The program also helped promote other U.S. objectives in Bosnia by
diminishing Iranian influence and ensuring the departure of the foreign
fighters.
The situations in Bosnia then and Libya now grow more alike as the violence in
Libya evolves into prolonged conflict. Despite establishment of a no-fly zone
over Libya, there is little reason to expect that air or naval power alone will
dislodge Gadhafi from areas he controls.
The U.N. Security Council resolution that authorized the no-fly zone and all
necessary measures to protect civilians under attack in Libya did not call for
Gadhafi's ouster. There are reports that some Arab countries are considering
deploying ground troops to Libya. But if they do, their role would likely be
protection of the civilian population in areas outside Gadhafi's control. That
outcome would still leave Gadhafi in power in western Libya.
That leaves few effective options if the United States wants to prevent the
crisis in Libya from leading to a prolonged armed conflict or de facto
partition that leaves a ruthless, embittered dictator with a terrorist record
in control of half the country. That situation could have long-term
destabilizing consequences for Libya and the Middle East.
The way out of this conundrum would be for the United States to clarify its
goals in Libya. Recognizing that lasting stability could only come about as the
result of the removal of Gadhafi from power, the United States and like-minded
countries could begin by recognizing the Benghazi government as the legitimate
government of Libya. The Libyan National Council is, after all, a government
set up by a popular uprising against tyranny and therefore inherently more
legitimate than Gadhafi's government in Tripoli.
The United States also might consider launching an effort to provide the
Benghazi government with arms and equipment to defend itself against Gadhafi's
forces and to help it liberate western Libya. The U.S. need not become directly
involved in the training and equipping of the Libyan opposition. As with the
Bosnia train and equip program, a small U.S. team could help arrange for the
purchase and delivery of arms, as well as supply training, possibly by third
parties.
There are those who would caution that the United States does not know enough
about the Libyan opposition to support it, but this is not entirely true. Some
of the opposition leaders are former cabinet ministers and generals in the
Libyan government, known to the United States and its allies.
As in all revolutions, a few of Libya's opposition leaders have emerged from
the rank and file of protesters. Some may be Islamists, but this was also true
in Bosnia during that war. If the U.S. were to simply stand aside, extremists
could fill the gap, as occurred in the early days of the Bosnian war.
The U.S. decision to support victims of aggression paid off in Bosnia and
advanced America's interests and values. Involvement on the side of the
democracy movement in Libya would enable the United States to exercise a
positive influence on Libya's evolution and prevent destabilizing outcomes.
The opinions in this commentary are solely those of Angel M. Rabasa.
------------------------------------
Post message: [email protected]
Subscribe : [email protected]
Unsubscribe : [email protected]
List owner : [email protected]
Homepage : http://proletar.8m.com/Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/proletar/
<*> Your email settings:
Individual Email | Traditional
<*> To change settings online go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/proletar/join
(Yahoo! ID required)
<*> To change settings via email:
[email protected]
[email protected]
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[email protected]
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
