In Libya, a perilous endgame
By Fawaz A. Gerges, Special to CNN
April 1, 2011 -- Updated 1032 GMT (1832 HKT)
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STORY HIGHLIGHTS
* Fawaz Gerges says Gadhafi, followers continue to hang on; Libya appears
divided
* He says rebels' challenge is reconciling with Gadhafi supporters to avoid
civil war
* He says stalemate looms as possibility, but even if Gadhafi routed,
aftermath will be ugly
* Gerges: West must stick to U.N. resolution; resist pushing regime change
Editor's note: Fawaz A. Gerges is the director of the Middle East Centre at the
London School of Economics. He is author of "The Far Enemy: Why Jihad Went
Global."
(CNN) -- Almost two weeks of intense bombings and the enforcement of a no-fly
zone in Libya by Western-led forces have neither broken the will of Col.
Moammar Gadhafi nor subdued his followers. Instead, the past couple of weeks
have proved that Libya is much more divided than the world had feared.
The major challenge facing the opposition now will be in reaching out to tribal
supporters of Gadhafi -- and skeptics and bystanders -- to allay their fears.
This kind of reconciliation will be the only means to avert a protracted,
costly civil war that could allow Gadhafi to regain some degree of control.
The coalition's airstrikes have indeed severely degraded Gadhafi's military
infrastructure and paved the way for the rebels to recapture, at least for a
time, a number of coastal communities and important oil installations,
including Ras Lanuf, Brega and Bin Jawad.
But loyalist forces pushed them out in recent days (Ajdabiya and Uqayla still
appear to be in rebel hands at the moment). According to Pentagon spokesman
Vice Adm. Bill Gortney, any military gains made by the rebels will be tenuous
because of their lack of organizational structure.
Two high-level Libyan officials, Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa and Ali
Abdussalam el-Treki, did defect this week.
Despite this, Gadhafi's entourage is fiercely defending the cities and towns
recaptured from the rebels. That they continue to persevere in the face of
international force should not come as a surprise, given the tribal structure
of Libyan society and Gadhafi's manipulation and co-opting of tribal divisions
and allies.
What does Koussa know?
Libyan opposition leaders emerge
Kucinich: Only Congress can declare war
Congress attacks Libya plan
RELATED TOPICS
* Libya
* War and Conflict
* Moammar Gadhafi
What is even more alarming is that Gadhafi's forces have managed to insert
themselves into urban areas across Libya. To defeat these loyalists will
necessitate boots on the ground fighting a long, bloody, guerrilla-style war.
Civilians would undoubtedly become targets.
Even if the Western-led coalition arms and trains the rebels and dislodges
Gadhafi from power, the morning after will likely be messy, costly and even
less certain. Libya appears to be sliding into a prolonged conflict with no
light at the end of the tunnel.
The opposition movement burst into play without a well-organized leadership or
institutional support. It was spontaneous and even the military personnel who
defected to it did not bring with them the heavy arms, infrastructure and
organizational skills necessary to make the difference in combat. Although
passionate, the rebels lack a centralized, coherent leadership, operational
capabilities and command-and-control decision-making. Most lack rudimentary
fighting skills.
Can the rebels bridge the widening divide between east and west and swiftly
coordinate to create a powerful military organization to force Gadhafi down?
This is the x-factor.
There is a real danger that a stalemate will emerge in Libya in which Gadhafi
and his henchmen remain in power around Tripoli and the rebels will hold the
east, around Benghazi. This would be a terrible outcome, for it would destroy
Libya and embroil Western powers in a war-torn country for years. American
generals, together with their European counterparts, have already alluded to
the risks inherent in the Libyan venture.
Nevertheless, the Western-led alliance must honor the U.N. Security Council
resolution, which authorized only protection of Libyan civilians, lest it get
bogged down in Libya's shifting sands, fueling anti-Western sentiments in the
region. Many in the Middle East who initially supported the West's humanitarian
intervention in Libya are beginning to question the military escalation and the
West's intentions.
Libyans, not outsiders, should be in charge of enacting change in their
society, a difficult task made more complicated by decades of oppression by the
Gadhafi regime. In addition to encouraging the opposition to build bridges to
Gadhafi's loyalists, the international community should allow the Italians, the
African Union and Arab states to offer Gadhafi a diplomatic mechanism out of
the deadly embrace.
But the Western powers, particularly the Obama administration, must resist the
temptation of military escalation in an effort to engineer regime change. That
could backfire and corrupt the nascent democratic movement in Libya.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Fawaz A. Gerges.
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