Saya senang dengan kalima tii:
"But in the long term, it is the historical transformations in the Arab and
Muslim world that will eventually close the book on al-Qaeda. "
--
Opinion
Analysis: Killing the alibi
Washington has less reason or justification to wage a war in Afghanistan now
that bin Laden is no more.
Marwan Bishara Last Modified: 02 May 2011 09:18
The news of bin Laden's death brought many to the streets across US cities [AFP]
The killing of Osama bin Laden is more of a symbolic victory for the Obama
administration than a game changer for the US strategy in the "Greater Middle
East".
After 10 years of pursuing al-Qaeda's leader, responsible for the September 11,
2001 attacks, the US has closed a chapter, but not the book, in its war on
al-Qaeda and "international terrorism".
Since the attacks on New York and Washington, "al-Qaeda central" which was
being run from the Pakistani Afghan border, has mutated into a global network
of affiliates.
US "terrorism experts" have been split over the relevance of "al-Qaeda central"
under the direct leadership of bin Laden and his lieutenants, in comparison to
the global network of smaller cells and hardcore fighters who pledged
allegiance to the leadership, or to put it bluntly, to the brand: "al-Qaeda".
Those who discount the importance of the 'disconnected and on-the-run' al-Qaeda
leaders on the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan underline the importance of
the decentralisation of the group.
They refer to it as SPIN (segmented, polycentric, ideologically networked)
group, where al-Qaeda fighters in various parts of the world have increasingly
acted on their own without direct orders or logistical and financial support
from "al-Qaeda central".
In that way, al-Qaeda was more of a global and post-modern creature or
phenomenon than a religious one.
What now?
While it has continued to invoke Islam and Jihad to rally support and to incite
against non-Muslims, in reality its organisation and outreach, whether through
the web or the use of modern technology, has been at the heart of its appeal as
a global network.
Be that as it may, the physical death of bin Laden will no doubt lead to a
serious psychological and inspirational setback for al-Qaeda fighters and their
causes.
But for the Muslim world, bin Laden has already been made irrelevant by the
Arab Spring that underlined the meaning of peoples power through peaceful means.
It is also worth recalling that bin Laden's al-Qaeda and its affiliates have
killed far more Arabs and Muslims than they did Westerners.
And it was only after they failed to garner real support in the Arab world that
they ran back to Afghanistan and began to target the West.
After long hijacking Arab and Muslim causes through its bloody attacks on
Western targets, al-Qaeda has been discredited since 9/11 and its
organisational capacity diminished by Western counter terror measures.
Al-Qaeda's bin Laden has provided the Bush administration with the excuse to
launch its disastrous and costly wars in the greater Middle East.
As expected, Washington's wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan continued to
provide al-Qaeda with fresh recruits and support in the Muslim world and
perpetuate a cycle of violence that ripped through the region for the last
decade.
However, it has been the more implicit and less costly US and Western
intelligence services that succeeded to a large degree in curtailing al-Qaeda
activities, limiting the movement of its leaders that eventually led to his
killing.
So what will this mean for the US war in Afghanistan and Pakistan? Certainly
Washington has less reason or justification to wage a war in Afghanistan now
that bin Laden is no more.
It might also find more readiness among certain Taliban leaders in the absence
of the thorniest issue of al-Qaeda, to make a deal that insures a power sharing
arrangement in favour of the Taliban in return for curbing the use of
Afghanistan by al-Qaeda to export "terrorism".
Bin Laden will continue to be a distraction for the short term, and especially
if some of al-Qaeda groups muster revenge attacks.
But in the long term, it is the historical transformations in the Arab and
Muslim world that will eventually close the book on al-Qaeda.
Source:
Al Jazeera
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