http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1054/focus.htm
30 June - 6 July 2011
Issue No. 1054
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875
Who's afraid of Islamist rule?
Fears of political Islam have increased to unprecedented levels both inside and
outside Egypt, but are such worries justified, asks Gihan Shahine
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Click to view caption
Egyptians are religiously moderate by nature. In Tahrir Square, millions
gathered for Friday prayers
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Whereas Western governments have long been frightened of the rise of political
Islam, local fears of Islamists representing political Islam in Egypt have also
now peaked, with many liberal, secular and Coptic commentators worrying that
the formerly outlawed Muslim Brotherhood will take over the country's
parliament in the upcoming elections and establish an Islamic state.
The 25 January Revolution that put an end to three decades of the autocratic
regime of former president Hosni Mubarak while not spearheaded by the Islamists
has nevertheless provided an unprecedented space of freedom for the Muslim
Brotherhood and Salafis to operate. That space has led to major concerns for
liberal, secular and Coptic observers inside Egypt and anxiety for Western
governments, especially the US and Israel.
The Muslim Brotherhood, outlawed for 30 years under Mubarak's rule and yet long
the best organised and best-funded opposition bloc on the political scene, has
already formed its own political party and is expected to make a strong showing
in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Many analysts expect that the absence
of equally strong opposition blocs to rival the Brotherhood will provide it
with a rare chance to dominate the parliament.
Meanwhile, the Salafis, whose discourse has long focussed on ritual and
spirituality and who steered clear of politics during Mubarak's rule, are
suddenly also emerging on the political scene, making a strong showing in the
media and also forming two political parties. Such developments have left many
secularists, liberals, leftists and Copts scrambling, with many fearing that
the Salafis, though sometimes critical of the Brotherhood, will join forces
with the latter group in the upcoming elections.
While there have been no studies of how strong the Salafis are in terms of
numbers, influence and popularity, some activists speculate that their
popularity is strongest in rural areas.
Coptic activist Mona Makram Ebeid is among those who worry that "the Salafis
have been brought out from their caves," and she has been quoted by the BBC as
saying that "everyone is frightened" and "there is a lot of fear in society and
a lot of concern." An equally anxious secularist and editor of Cairo's
Democracy Review, Hala Mustafa, similarly told the BBC that the Salafist
movement was very influential in Egypt and was trying to "turn Egypt into an
Islamic state".
Concerns that the Islamists may dominate the political scene in the immediate
future escalated when prominent Islamist intellectual Mohamed Selim El-Awwa and
prominent former Brotherhood member Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh declared that they
would run in the upcoming presidential elections as independent candidates.
The fact that the Brotherhood had earlier made it clear that it would not
contest this year's presidential elections and had cancelled Abul-Fotouh's
membership for violating the group's decision hardly dispelled fears that the
country was poised on the brink of Islamist rule. Many observers point to the
fact that Egypt is a basically religious nation, adding that many people may be
tempted to support the Islamists in the upcoming parliamentary and presidential
elections.
Such fears, sometimes seen by other analysts as being exaggerated, have led
liberal, secular and Coptic voters to rally forces in attempts to stave off
potential political gains by the Muslim Brotherhood and others in the upcoming
elections. Meanwhile, liberal and secular activists are pushing for the
postponement of the parliamentary elections, in order that their parties,
especially those formed after the January Revolution, may have an equal
opportunity to organise and contest the Brotherhood.
Leading Coptic businessman Naguib Sawiris is among those pushing for a
postponement of the parliamentary elections. As the founder of the secular Free
Egyptians Party, Sawiris insists that holding parliamentary elections now would
not provide "a fair contest" for his party and nor would it allow any other
opposition party to compete with the Brotherhood. If the Islamists do indeed
come to dominate the country's next government, a pessimistic Sawiris was
quoted as saying, "the dictatorship of Mubarak" will have given place to that
of the Muslim Brotherhood.
"That is where Egypt is going now," Sawiris said in press statements, echoing
fears among the country's Copts of the rise of the Islamists to political
power, notably after the many recent incidents of sectarian rifts in Egypt. If
comments from Coptic human rights activist Wagih Yacoub are anything to go by,
there may even be signs that the country's Copts are turning into Islamophobes.
" There is no doubt that the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis are allies,"
Yacoub told the Washington-based International Christian Concern (ICC) group
recently. " The Brotherhood plays politics, and the Salafis are causing chaos
so they can empty Egypt of Christians and make it into an Islamic state. Lots
of Egyptian people, including moderate Muslims, are worried. If Egypt becomes
an Islamic state, it may mean civil war."
Many analysts insist that such comments blow the situation out of proportion
and are unfounded. If public-opinion surveys are anything to go by, the
majority of Egyptians "desire a democracy informed by religious values, not a
theocracy," and less than one per cent of the population considers Iran to be a
political model for Egypt, according to a recent report by Gallup Abu Dhabi, a
polling organisation.
Although 96 per cent of Egyptians believe religion to be important, and 92 per
cent say that they have confidence in religious institutions, most Egyptians
still believe religious leaders should be limited to an advisory role and not
have the authority to determine the country's laws, the Gallup report said.
Political analyst Fahmy Howeidy also rejects claims that the Brotherhood or the
Islamists constitute a danger to Egypt, or that they will dominate the
country's next government. "If someone tells you this flat is haunted, would
you listen to him, or would you just dismiss what he says as nonsense," Howeidy
asked, describing the claims of Islamist dominance to be similar to such
"nonsense".
Fears of the rule of political Islam in Egypt, however, do not necessarily
amount to Islamophobia, Howeidy said, who added that "the country's secular and
liberal opposition is suffering from a state of anxiety, weakness and defeat
after the recent referendum over the constitutional amendments proved that they
have little weight or popularity in Egyptian society."
Only 22.8 per cent of the population supported secular and liberal calls for a
no vote in the referendum, despite a powerful media campaign, while an
overwhelming majority of 77.2 per cent approved the amendments. Although many
of those who voted yes were probably seeking stability more than anything else,
the result of the referendum was largely interpreted in a religious context on
the grounds that the Brotherhood and the Salafis had mobilised for a yes vote
in contrast to other political formations.
Current fears of an Islamist takeover in Egypt are also not new. The former
regime was always keen to portray the Islamists as constituting a "strategic
danger" to the country, and it used the Brotherhood's popularity to convince
the world that if Egypt embraced real democracy, the Islamists would take over
and turn Egypt into a theocracy. That false image, according to Howeidy,
remains engrained in the minds of many people.
This legacy of phobia of the mythical power of the Islamists, says Manar
El-Shorbagi, a professor of political science at the American University in
Cairo, has now led to a worrying state of polarisation in the country, even
driving some members of the opposition to embrace "undemocratic practices".
El-Shorbagi refers to the current "Constitution First" campaign that is
sweeping Egypt, pushing for the drafting of a new constitution ahead of
parliamentary elections out of a fear that the Brotherhood will win a majority
in parliament and will then use that to monopolise the writing of the new
constitution.
El-Shorbagi, who voted against the constitutional amendments, considers this
move to be "a serious blow to democracy" because it goes against the wishes of
the majority of the population, which voted for a new constitution to be
written after the elections and not before. The referendum obliges the upcoming
parliament to elect a 100-member committee to draft the new constitution within
six months of the parliamentary poll.
"It's like killing democracy before it even starts," El-Shorbagi says. "We have
to respect the wishes of the majority."
She insists that fears that the Brotherhood will dominate the upcoming
parliament are not well-founded since in the latest student union elections,
students belonging to the group did not get more than 24 to 28 seats. "It is no
more than phobia," she insists. "The Brotherhood is already alienating support
as a result of its recent provocative statements and the arrogance of power."
Claims that Egyptians are largely religious and will therefore support the
Islamists do not worry El-Shorbagi, who insists that "people are wise enough to
make a distinction between religion and the Brotherhood."
For his part, political activist Yehia El-Qazzaz insists that there is no
phobia about the rise of the Islamists, adding that the "Constitution First"
campaign is not motivated by fear of them. Instead, El-Qazzaz says that the
Brotherhood itself has been trying to create such fears through its provocative
media statements, portraying itself as the victim of secularist attacks in
attempts to gain public sympathy and mend internal rifts.
"The Brothers, who were subject to decades of repression under Mubarak's rule,
have discovered that they cannot work unless they are under pressure,"
El-Qazzaz told Al-Ahram Weekly in an interview, adding that the sudden space of
freedom that had been created by the revolution had itself created rifts within
the group.
El-Qazzaz speculated that the group was creating an "alternative enemy" for
itself and presenting itself as being the victim of secularist attacks, so that
it can unite in the face of such threats and regain the sympathy of the
streets.
El-Qazzaz describes himself as a "nationalist Muslim" and not a secularist or a
liberal, and he says that he is not an opponent of the Brotherhood.
Nevertheless, he too argues that the new constitution should be written ahead
of the elections, though "as a guarantee against any manipulation in the
drafting of the constitution on the part of the ruling military council" and
not because he is afraid that the Brothers will impose Islamic rule.
Even if the Brotherhood wins a majority in the upcoming elections, he says, it
will not change the constitution in a way that imposes Islamic law. "The
Brothers will not change anything or impose Islamic rule. What they want is a
civil state with religious references," El-Qazzaz says.
Michele Dunne, editor of the Arab Reform Bulletin at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, similarly discounts the possibility that Egypt will turn
into an Islamic state or have an Islamist president. She expects, however, that
Islamists will have "a significant presence in the parliament," though this may
not be a major worry. "I think that even if you ask the Muslim Brotherhood
about their goal, they will say it is not to establish an Islamic state but
rather to function within a democratic system," Dunne told the BBC.
The Brotherhood has been enhancing its media presence with assurances that it
does not want to establish an Islamic state, but is instead in favour of a
civil state informed by religious values and insisting that there is no such
thing as theocracy in Islam. The Brotherhood has also insisted that it does not
wish to dominate the parliament and will only contest 50 per cent of the seats
in the upcoming elections, aiming for around 30 per cent of the seats.
Brotherhood spokesman Essam El-Erian has been quoted in the media as saying
that fears of the Islamists are "overblown" since "the Egyptian people are wise
enough to have a balanced parliament and are keen to have a civil and a
democratic state."
Yet, the Brotherhood's position on issues pertaining to women and to the
country's Coptic Christian minority remains worrying to many. The group was
highly criticised recently for statements saying that it would not accept a
woman or a Copt as president, and there have been fears that the Islamists will
try to impose Islamist ideas on the country if they dominate the next
parliament, such as forcing women to wear veils or banning interest on
investments.
Many members of the Brotherhood insist that such claims are unfounded,
potential presidential candidate Abul-Fotouh telling the popular television
talk show Al-Ashira Masaan (10pm) that the Islamists will not attempt to impose
their ideas on others or push women into wearing the veil against their will.
There can be no compulsion in religion, he said.
The group has also revisited many of its former positions, including those
concerning women and religious minorities. Women constitute more than 10 per
cent of the Brotherhood's political party, the Freedom and Justice Party, while
the party's vice-chairman is the prominent Coptic intellectual Rafiq Habib.
A recent editorial in the British newspaper The Guardian entitled "Islam in
Egypt: fear and fantasy" suggested that people should be more anxious about the
future of Egypt than about the Muslim Brotherhood. Although the group is
expected to play a major role in future, the editorial argued that it should
not provoke fear in others since it is "now less a radical organisation than a
conservative one, striving to be relevant to modern needs and divided on how
far it can or should trim its policies."
The fact that the Brotherhood long ago renounced violence may also be a major
point in the group's favour when it comes to Western concerns about political
Islam in Egypt. According to the Washington Post's Scott Wilson, the Obama
administration is already "preparing for the prospect that Islamist governments
will take hold in North Africa and the Middle East", and it has thus ordered
studies to "differentiate between such movements as the Muslim Brotherhood in
Egypt and Al-Qaeda."
According to the Washington Post, "the Brotherhood's mix of Islam and
nationalism makes it a far different organisation than Al-Qaeda, which sees
national boundaries as obstacles to restoring the Islamic caliphate." Many
policymakers in the United States also take Turkey, ruled by an Islamist
government, as being a successful model for a mixture of Islam and democracy,
though others argue that the "ruling Islamist party [in Turkey] is restrained
by the country's highly secular army and court system, a pair of strong
institutional checks that countries such as Egypt and Tunisia lack."
Yet, at least on the administration level the United States is trying to adapt
to the idea that the Islamists may now be a strong political force in
post-revolutionary Egypt. A senior official in the US administration was quoted
in the Washington Post as saying that "we shouldn't be afraid of Islam in the
politics of these countries... It's the behaviour of political parties and
governments that we will judge them on, not their relationship with Islam."
US President Obama has also attempted to come to a new understanding with Islam
since he took office, arguing that it does not contradict democracy, and US
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has also been receptive to the idea of
Islamist parties participating in shaping the region's political future.
"Political participation," Clinton said, "must be open to all people across the
spectrum who reject violence, uphold equality and agree to play by the rules of
democracy."
For his part, Howeidy argues that the United States will not object to any
government that guards its interests in the region, even if this means having
to work with the Islamists. The real cause for alarm, perhaps, remains the US's
most important ally, Israel, "which fears that governments based on religious
law will inevitably undercut democratic reforms and other Western values,"
Wilson wrote in his article in the Washington Post.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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