http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1066/re1.htm
29 September - 5 October 2011
Issue No. 1066
Region
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875
Libya's unfinished agenda
Swinging right, or backwards? The NTC shies away from posing as a trend-setter
of the Arab world for obvious reasons, reckons Gamal Nkrumah
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Libya unquestionably suffers from the turmoil associated with moving abruptly
from a political system in which power was confined to a relatively restricted
elite, even a one-man show, to a more inclusive Western-style democracy.
Click to view caption
Anti-Gaddafi fighters fire a multiple rocket launcher near Sirte, one of
Muammar Gaddafi's last remaining strongholds
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Are Libyans wading into dangerous waters? The answer is yes. However, it is
right for the Libyan people to do so nonetheless, so long as they are aware of
the risks.
The studious lack of mutual criticism between the West and Libya's new leaders
is somewhat disconcerting. Libyans must not focus exclusively on the
opportunities that a post-Muammar Gaddafi dispensation provides. The forcible
imposition of Western values on non-Western societies sometimes produces
awkward outcomes.
Gaddafi made much political capital from his readiness to defy the might of the
imperialist West. However, he also did brisk business with his supposed
adversaries and they seemed reconciled to his ineffectual antics in recent
years, but in an about-face, they stabbed him in the back. The West branded
Gaddafi a dangerous despot with a criminal record. It made no secret of its
newly earnest wish to see him deposed. It supported, morally and militarily,
the opposition groups that it hoped will be the instrument of its desire.
Yet few in the West questioned the credentials of the disparate Libyan
opposition forces fighting Gaddafi. They, in turn, never lost hope of getting
decisive help from outsiders -- the West and conservative Gulf Arab nations
alike. Today the West worries, no doubt, about the cohesion of the National
Transitional Council (NTC).
For all its fragility, the NTC announced that it would form a government of
national unity next week. It is adamant that peace and prosperity will come
only with stable democracy. Yet the NTC, in spite of the tremendous debt it
owes NATO for freeing Libya from Gaddafi's stranglehold, might even be no
friendlier to the West in the long-run. Civil war in Libya could turn into
regional chaos engulfing the entire Saharan and Sahelian regions of northern
and western Africa.
Nobody knows what will happen in Libya over the coming months. The more
prominent of the NTC leaders have been quick to applaud the West at
international forums such as the United Nations, others among the NTC rank and
file have been more reticent.
So was the West right to wade into the uncharted waters of Libya? The West
faces practical difficulties in assisting the NTC. Policymakers in Western
capitals see Libya's new leadership as divided and ineffective. Several NTC
leaders themselves are implicated in crimes ostensibly committed by Gaddafi
himself. The leaders of the NTC have described themselves as "moderate
Islamists" whatever that means. It is not hard either to detect political
resistance to Western-style democracy among the rank and file of the NTC.
Such criticisms of the NTC should not be lightly dismissed. If NTC leaders
succeed in deploying the threat of militant Islam to bludgeon secularist and
socialist forces into submission, the results for Libyan democracy will even be
more damaging. The West's propulsion of the NTC to power in Libya will be a
Pyrrhic victory.
With good reason, Gaddafi diehards will never accept their defeat as
legitimate. The subject of Islam -- militant or moderate -- will become as
bitterly polarised as democracy, and just as incapable of resolution through
debate or compromise. Whatever the outcome of NTC power struggles, their
dubious quest for transparency, imposed from outside, will be viewed by human
rights organisations as an evasion of authentic democratic accountability.
Libyans cannot afford such an abuse of their hard-won democracy.
Libya's new leaders need not worry that the pay-off from reform will be
disappointing. Yes, tough times lie ahead. Democratic reforms are rather
controversial, some will be fiercely resisted by the more militant Islamist and
traditionally conservative forces. It is crucially important to remember that
success for the NTC came by the narrowest of margins.
Even as Al-Ahram Weekly went to press, the NTC's Liberation Army was forced to
retreat from the besieged city of Sirte, Gaddafi's hometown, because of fierce
resistance from the former Libyan leader's followers. Other Gaddafi bastions
such as the town of Bani Walid to the immediate south of Tripoli and the
southern city of Sebha, where Gaddafi spent considerable time during his youth,
are still holding out against the NTC's Liberation Army.
Gaddafi's daughter Aisha told reporters in Algiers that her father was "in good
spirits and fighting alongside his supporters". Algeria is attempting to
distant itself from the Gaddafi regime, however. and Algerian Foreign Minister
Murad Mdeleci dismissed Aisha's comments as "unacceptable". She was given
temporary political asylum in Algeria on condition that she does not utter
controversial public statements, the Algerian authorities insist.
The Algerian daily Al-Akhbar reported that Gaddafi hangers-on, possibly
including Aisha and other members of his family had left Algeria bound for
Egypt. Egyptian authorities officially denied the Algerian reports. Such
unconfirmed reports have not shed light on the whereabouts of Gaddafi's close
family members, inner circle and high-profile sycophants.
The most disconcerting development as far as the NTC is concerned is a growing
sense of unease about the fate of Gaddafi. "The fact that he is still free and
has wealth at his disposal can destabilise Libya and the region," Mahmoud
Jibril, the NTC executive committee chairman said.
Tweedledum and Tweedledee, Mustafa Abdel-Jalil and Mahmoud Jibril, peer
optimistically through the looking-glass of the global capitalist economy. Even
as Libya's new leaders wrangle over the distracting details of democracy, the
scheme hatched by Western investors to exploit the oil-rich country's resources
unravels.
Already the proposed democratisation and laissez-faire economic changes have
prompted renewed talk of the vigour of the market and the gridlock of Gaddafi's
discredited state capitalism.
Italy's ENI, the giant oil corporation and largest foreign oil producer in
Libya before Gaddafi was overthrown, announced the resumption of its oil
extraction. France's Total, too, announced the restart of its oil production
and exploration in Libya.
The NTC naturally glossed over these developments. The NTC clearly has a
morning-after problem. It finds itself in a precarious environment of messy and
protracted transition to democracy. A split in its ranks between "moderate" and
"militant" Islamists hampers the NTC's efforts to effect radical reform.
One can appreciate the predicament that has led the NTC to conclude that an
appeal to the Libyan people for restraint is their best course of action.
The NTC and the United Nations are deeply concerned about the proliferation of
arms in Libya and the discovery of weapons of mass destruction stashed away by
Gaddafi in remote desert depots.
A depot of chemical weapons and yellow-cake uranium stockpiles across the
country sounded the alarm bells in Western capitals. A depot of chemical
weapons was supposedly found in the oasis town of Jufra, 435km south of
Tripoli. Western fears abound that the weapons will fall into the hands of
Al-Qaeda and already there are indications that some of the chemical stockpiles
have been pilfered by "terrorist" groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda and have
found their way to neighbouring countries such as Algeria, Chad, Mali, Niger
and Sudan. Such allegations are unsubstantiated, but Western powers and the UN
are taking the threat seriously.
Resentment in the international community is also growing about the treatment
of an estimated 30,000 Sub-Saharan Africans stranded in Sebha and other
southern cities in the province of Fezzan, southern Libya. Black people are
asked to produce identification documents to prove that they are local Libyans.
The UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Libya Panos Moumtzis warned that the UN was
"extremely concerned about civilians being caught up in the middle of the
conflict regardless of which side it serves."
Another bone of contention between the NTC and its Western benefactors is the
re-activation and resumption of the Lockerbie file. The NTC insisted that the
Lockerbie file be closed once and for all. Scotland, however, has submitted an
official request to Libya's new leaders to look into the Lockerbie affair.
Scotland's chief prosecutor Lord Advocate Frank Mulholland requested that
Abdel-Baset Al-Megrahi, the chief suspect in the Lockerbie affair, stand trial,
a request that was flatly denied.
A senior Gaddafi aide General Belgacem Al-Aibaaj was captured by the NTC and
there are hopes that he might lead them to Gaddafi's hiding place.
Libya's on a knife-edge. Sceptics roll their eyes at Gaddafi's ominous prophecy
that the militant Islamists and Al-Qaeda will take over the country if and when
he steps down. Now that he's out of office, there's more than a suspicion that
his divination will come true.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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