http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/10/2011108122558980585.html
Opinion
Decline and fall of the US' decline and fall
The decline of US global dominance does not necessarily mean that China will
replace it as world superpower.
Joseph S Nye Last Modified: 11 Oct 2011 12:36
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Because of the decline of the US economy, many are predicting America's
decline [GALLO/GETTY]
The United States is going through difficult times. Its post-2008 recovery has
slowed, and some observers fear that Europe's financial problems could tip the
American and world economy into a second recession.
American politics, moreover, remains gridlocked over budgetary issues, and
compromise will be even more difficult on the eve of the 2012 election, when
Republicans hope that economic problems will help them unseat President Barack
Obama. In these circumstances, many are predicting America's decline,
especially relative to China.
And it's not just pundits who think so. A recent Pew poll found that in 15 of
22 countries surveyed, most people believe that China either will replace or
has replaced America as "the world's leading superpower". In Britain, those
putting China on top rose to 47 per cent, from 34 per cent in 2009. Similar
trends are evident in Germany, Spain, and France.
"In 15 of 22 countries surveyed, most people believe that China either
will replace or has replaced America as 'the world's leading superpower'."
Indeed, the poll found more pessimistic views of the US among our oldest and
closest allies than in Latin America, Japan, Turkey, and Eastern Europe. But
even Americans are divided equally about whether China will replace the US as a
global superpower.
Such sentiments reflect the slow growth and fiscal problems that followed the
2008 financial crisis, but they are not historically unprecedented. Americans
have a long history of incorrectly estimating their power. In the 1950s and
1960s, after Sputnik, many thought that the Soviets might get the better of
America; in the 1980s, it was the Japanese. Now it is the Chinese. But, with
America's debt on a path to equalling its national income in a decade, and a
fumbling political system that cannot seem to address the country's fundamental
challenges, are the "declinists" finally right?
Much will depend on the uncertainties - often underestimated - brought about by
future political change in China. Economic growth will bring China closer to
the US in power resources, but that doesn't necessarily mean that China will
surpass the US as the most powerful country.
What does GDP really mean?
China's GDP will almost certainly surpass that of the US within a decade, owing
to the size of its population and its impressive economic-growth rate. But,
measured by per capita income, China will not equal the US for decades, if then.
Moreover, even if China suffers no major domestic political setback, many
current projections are based simply on GDP growth. They ignore US military and
soft-power advantages, as well as China's geopolitical disadvantages. As Japan,
India, and others try to balance Chinese power, they welcome an American
presence. It is as if Mexico and Canada sought a Chinese alliance to balance
the US in North America.
As for absolute decline, the US has very real problems, but the American
economy remains highly productive. America remains first in total R&D
expenditure, first in university rankings, first in Nobel prizes, and first on
indices of entrepreneurship. According to the World Economic Forum, which
released its annual report on economic competitiveness last month, the US is
the fifth most competitive economy in the world (behind the small economies of
Switzerland, Sweden, Finland, and Singapore). China ranks only 26th.
Moreover, the US remains at the forefront of such cutting-edge technologies as
biotech and nanotechnology. This is hardly a picture of absolute economic
decline.
Some observers worry that American society will become sclerotic, like Britain
at the peak of its power a century ago. But American culture is far more
entrepreneurial and decentralised than was that of Britain, where
industrialists' sons sought aristocratic titles and honours in London. And
despite recurrent bouts of concern throughout its history, America reaps huge
benefits from immigration.
In 2005, foreign-born immigrants had participated in 25 per cent of technology
start-ups in the previous decade. As Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew once told me,
China can draw on a talent pool of 1.3 billion people, but the US can draw on
the world's seven billion, and can recombine them in a diverse culture that
enhances creativity in a way that ethnic Han nationalism cannot.
Many commentators worry about America's inefficient political system. True,
America's founding fathers created a system of checks and balances designed to
preserve liberty at the price of efficiency. Moreover, the US is now
experiencing a period of intense partisan polarisation. But nasty politics is
nothing new to the US: Its founding era was hardly an idyll of dispassionate
deliberation. American government and politics have always experienced such
episodes, and, though overshadowed by current melodramas, they were sometimes
worse than today's.
The US faces serious problems: Public debt, weak secondary education, and
political gridlock, to name just a few. But one should remember that these
problems are only part of the picture - and, in principle, they can be solved
over the long term.
It is important to distinguish such problems from those that cannot, in
principle, be solved. Of course, whether America can implement the available
solutions is uncertain; several commissions have proposed feasible plans to
change America's debt trajectory by raising taxes and cutting expenditures, but
feasibility is no guarantee that they will be adopted. Still, Lee Kuan Yew is
probably right to say that China "will give the US a run for its money", but
not surpass it in overall power in the first half of this century.
If so, the gloomy predictions of absolute American decline will turn out to be
as misleading as similar predictions in decades past. And, in relative terms,
while the "rise of the rest" means that America will be less dominant than it
once was, this does not mean that China will necessarily replace the US as the
world's leading power.
Joseph Nye, a former US assistant secretary of defence, is a professor at
Harvard and author of The Future of Power.
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily
reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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