Sudan in Crisis
by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
The American Spectator
November 1, 2011
http://www.meforum.org/3087/sudan-crisis
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Three months after the birth of South Sudan, how is the northern neighbor of
the world's newest nation faring?
The country, witnessing minor
demonstrations, generally managed to escape the large-scale protests
that have swept across the Middle East and North Africa since last winter, but
as the Financial Times reports, Sudan's economy has been hit severely by the
secession of the south,
which was by far Khartoum's largest source of oil revenues.
Indeed, the oil boom in the early 2000s
made Sudan one of the fastest growing economies in Africa. Yet owing to a 75
percent drop in oil revenues since July, the Sudanese pound --
Khartoum's currency -- has dropped by up to 60 percent on the black
market, while annual inflation reached 21 percent last month, with the
price of meat now reaching $10 per kilogram. Of course, these
developments could well re-ignite popular protests.
Meanwhile, the ruling autocrat Omar al-Bashir has vowed to adopt a constitution
completely in accordance with Sharia (Islamic
law). As Bashir himself put it, "Ninety-eight percent of the people are
Muslims and the new constitution will reflect this. The official
religion will be Islam and Islamic law the main source [of the
constitution]."
This statement neatly fits in with his outlook elaborated on in December of
last year, when he declared: "If south Sudan secedes, we will change the
constitution and at that
time there will be no time to speak of diversity of culture and
ethnicity.… Shari'a and Islam will be the main source for the
constitution, Islam the official religion and Arabic the official
language."
This will naturally pose problems for the million or so southerners still
residing in the north, as well as the
Christian populations residing in Sudan's southern border states of Blue Nile
and South Kordofan, both of which were granted a degree of
autonomy on religious and cultural issues as part of the 2005 peace deal that
recognized the "cultural and social diversity of the Sudanese
people."
While the Catholic Church in Blue Nile
did not hesitate to voice its anxieties back in February over a
potential extension of Shari'a law, it is disconcerting to note that
Bashir's initiative apparently has strong support from local Muslims in Blue
Nile.
In fact, Blue Nile and South Kordofan
merit special attention because the Sudanese government is still waging
an active, indiscriminate bombing campaign in these areas against rebels who,
consisting of Christians and some Muslims, belong to the Sudan People's
Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N). South Kordofan, situated
in the Nuba Mountains, contains a substantial proportion of Sudan's
remaining oil reserves, and by August had already seen the displacement
of nearly 400,000 civilians, amid claims of rebel advances against government
troops.
As for Blue Nile, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that more
than 27,000 refugees have fled into neighboring Ethiopia as a result of the
conflict, and state media are reporting that the
Sudanese army is closing in on the rebels as it has seized control of
the town of Sali,
just 5.6 miles north of the rebel stronghold of Kurmuk, which has been
almost completely emptied of civilians. On the other hand, the SPLM-N is
denying that this event has occurred.
Precise information as to the balance of
power in the fighting in Blue Nile and South Kordofan is difficult to
obtain because aid agencies have been denied access to both areas.
Hence, the U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan -- Princeton Lyman -- has called on
Khartoum to allow "credible" international NGOs to reach the two states to
assess the humanitarian situation.
In any event, it is clear that the events in the two border-states could well
provoke a war between Sudan and its southern neighbor, with the former accusing
the latter of orchestrating the rebels' activities. South Sudan denies this
allegation, but may
feel compelled to support the SPLM-N in the near future should
Khartoum's forces overwhelm the rebels and carry out mass killings on a
similar scale to what happened in Darfur.
At this point, many are inclined to
dismiss the role of the Sudanese government's Islamist and Arab
supremacist ideology behind its policies in South Kordofan and Darfur.
Granted, there is a desire to secure a monopoly for Khartoum itself (where much
of the wealth from the oil boom years was spent for
the benefit of the Arab elite in the capital city) on the country's
remaining petroleum reserves.
However, the regime's key goal of
imposing Islamic law and Arabization on the Christian and black African
Muslim ethnic groups in the country is evident from the statements made
by the Sudanese elite. Bashir's desire to extend the realm of Sharia and
enforce an Arab identity over the entire country has already been
noted.
When it comes to Darfur, where an inflow of arms from Libya could now revive
the Darfuri rebels' fight against the government,
Sudanese officials and Janjaweed militias have consistently defined
their actions of ethnic cleansing against the native population of the
region as "jihad" against peoples perceived as insufficiently Islamic
and Arabized. For example, as armed forces spokesman Mohamed Beshir
Suleiman put it in August 2004, "The door of the jihad is still open and if it
has been closed in the south it will be opened in Darfur."
As Sadiq al-Mahdi, a leading opposition figure in Sudan, summed up: "The
catastrophe that afflicted our country began with the takeover by a minority
party that imposed an Arabic Islamic identity on a country of
diverse religions and cultures, treating whoever did not agree with it
as a renegade to be fought by jihad."
And so it is today that activists in
South Kordofan and Blue Nile point to the real solution required if
Sudan is ever to move forward. In the words of Amar Amoun, a Nuban MP from
South Kordofan, there must be a "democratic, secular
Sudan where we all have rights." Yet the international community at
large seems unwilling to acknowledge the role of jihad theology and Arab
supremacist attitudes behind Khartoum's behavior.
In the meantime, where are the calls for a UN-mandated no-fly zone over South
Kordofan and Blue Nile? Where are
the demands for a NATO bombing campaign against Sudan's armed forces?
Answer: they do not exist.
Why? Because, unlike Gaddafi, Omar al-Bashir has not been abandoned by the Arab
League, which gave him a red-carpet welcome at the group's summit in Qatar in
2009; nor have members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which is increasingly
replacing the Arab League as an inter-Arab political body, thought it necessary
to denounce the
Sudanese president. Such is the racist hypocrisy of the Arab
governments, which have similarly failed to condemn the horrific
treatment of black migrant workers in Libya at the hands of militias that were
fighting against Gaddafi.
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a student at Brasenose College, Oxford University,
and an intern at the Middle East Forum.
Related Topics: Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
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