On 17/02/17 15:33, Tom Ritter wrote:
<Puts on his asking for more hat>

Can it be broken out by revocation reason?

Hi Tom. Good idea. I'll do that on Monday. I'm already storing the revocation reasons on the crt.sh DB.

(Or is revocation reason
considered so worthless as for this not to be a useful exercise?)

Maybe we'll be able to answer that question on Monday.  :-)

-tom

On 17 February 2017 at 06:42, Rob Stradling via Public
<[email protected]> wrote:
I found this interesting, so I thought I'd share it.  :-)

Yesterday I ran a query on the crt.sh database to gather data on...

ageWhenRevoked = trunc(revocationDate - notBefore)

Here are the results:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-_2zFhUc1mKRNPOzH2alad-nX73xST-ouiy5aXRKiXs/edit?usp=sharing

The data set includes all revoked, unexpired serverAuth certs for which
there's a known (to CT) serverAuth trust chain to any root cert that's
trusted by at least one of the major root programs (Microsoft, Mozilla,
Apple, Java).

There are some obviously bogus revocationDates in the data set (e.g., -920
days before the notBefore date!)  However, if we assume that most
revocationDates in CRLs are accurate, these results show that, in general,
the likelihood of revocation decreases approximately logarithmically as a
certificate ages.
There are spikes around certificate birthdays, which are presumably due to
(i) revalidation failures and/or (ii) customers cancelling regular payment
agreements.

--
Rob Stradling
Senior Research & Development Scientist
COMODO - Creating Trust Online

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Rob Stradling
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COMODO - Creating Trust Online
Office Tel: +44.(0)1274.730505
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