Hello again, Quackle team and all, This is a recent game that went really wrong, mainly because I allowed a high-scoring phony. Still, late in the game, Quackle thought I had a slim 2% chance of salvaging the win. Further details after the first 10 moves...
#player1 John John #player2 opp opp >John: ?EGOUVY - +0 0 >opp: AWW 8G WAW +18 18 >John: AEMMUUY -AYMMUU +0 0 >opp: EKP 9F KEP +20 38 >opp: EKP -- -20 18 >John: EENNTXZ H8 .NNEXE +21 21 >opp: ACEKLMP 13G K.P +17 35 >John: EIORTTZ 11B EROTIZ. +32 53 >opp: ?BEEEST C8 BEE.iEST +70 105 >John: AILMNOT 10B M.TA +26 79 >opp: ?EIRRTV 14H RIVeTER +102 207 >John: IJ 8A JI. +36 115 >opp: EIY 15A YE.I +24 231 >John: DLLNNOP M10 POLL.N +16 131 >opp: AAEGT D4 AGATE +28 259 >John: ADHINOO L6 DAHOON +20 151 >opp: AGTU 8K G.AUT +27 286 >John: IILNRRV 5A VIR.IN +20 171 >opp: IOQU O4 QUOI. +24 310 >John: ABFLNRS 15F FAS +63 234 >opp: ELMOOSY N6 YO. +29 339 >John: BEGILNR K2 BILGE +19 253 >opp: ALMU 4H MUL.A +20 359 So here's my situation: I'm way behind, and there are darn few tiles (5) left in the bag. The move I played, tantamount to resignation, was K10 COIN(e)R for 27 points. That play was not listed when I did 'Generate Moves'. The Sim that I ran included that move and 2 of Quackle's suggestions, and the result (on 2 plies, 1,000+ iterations) was: Move Score Leave Win % Valuation 9E CRO(N)E 26 EIN 2.18 30.0 K10 COIN(e)R 27 EE 0.23 30.3 H1 ICE(M)EN 30 OR 0.16 29.7 Hmm. It seems that there's roughly a 1-in-50 chance of salvaging the win if I play CRO(N)E instead, but I can't figure out how to get the program to reveal to me just what the magical sequence of plays & draws might be that would lead me to that miracle come-from-behind win. So I asked 'Championship Player' what to do, and got these 2 suggestions: Move Score Leave Win % Valuation 9E CRO(N)E 26 EIN 1.21 5.7 K10 (Z)E(K) 25 CEINOR 0.76 7.7 Is there a way to get Quackle to show me how I might have won the game after 9E CRO(N)E ? Even if it's highly improbable, I like to hold out some hope, even in desperate circumstances. The 'Simulation Details Explanation' dialog refers to average score, standard deviation, and average differential. What I think I'm looking for is best-case or worst-case scenario. In particular, I'd like to know (since I can't figure it out for myself) what sequence of plays, however unlikely, would have led me to a win. For the sake of completeness, the game ended: >John: CEEINOR K10 COIN.R +27 280 >opp: CHOS O12 COSH +46 405 >John: DEEFRSU B2 SER.F +32 312 #rack2 ADD ... and he played ADD(ED) rather than A1 DAD. Thanks for any insight on querying Quackle as to how I might have pulled this one out. John Hart
