I'am looking for examples showing that correlation does not imply causality, the targeted audience consists of undergraduate students (their first year at the university but in the BioMathStat track). All practicals are under R.
I was able to extract this from R datasets:
### begin
data(sunspots)
data(lynx)
spots <- window(sunspots, freq = 1, start = 1880, end = 1900)
lnx <- window(lynx, start = 1880, end = 1900)
ratio <- max(lnx)/max(spots)
par(mai = rep(1, 4))
plot(lnx, main = "Sun spots intensity\nand lynx population density",
t = "b", ylab = "")
lines(ratio*spots, col = "red", t = "b")
axis(side = 4, col = "red", col.axis = "red", at = ratio*pretty(spots),
lab = pretty(spots))
legend(1887, 4500, col = c("red", "black"), c("spots", "lynx"), pch = 21)
### endShouldn't I try to publish this in Nature or Science with a title that goes "Solar activity increase libido in lynx populations" ? Note the nice shift between the two curves corresponding to the gestation time!
A brief look at the whole dataset demonstates that this is definitively wrong:
### begin
spots <- window(sunspots, freq = 1, start = 1821, end = 1934)
ratio <- max(lynx)/max(spots)
plot(lynx, main = "Sun spots intensity\nand lynx population density",
ylab = "")
lines(ratio*spots, col = "red")
axis(side = 4, col = "red", col.axis = "red", at = ratio*pretty(spots),
lab = pretty(spots))
legend(1870, 6000, col = c("red", "black"), c("spots", "lynx"), lty = 1)
### endSo, I'am looking for similar examples, any hint would be greatly appreciated. Basically, I'am looking for correlations between completely deconnected phenomena so that the overinterpreted causality relationships look stupid at first glance (and the more funny the link, the better).
BTW, does someone know where to find the data of this example of a high correlation between beer drinking in the US and children mortality in japan (or something like that, I'm unsure, I have googled around with these keywords but found nothing) ?
All the best, and many thanks to the whole R team for providing us such a nice tool.
Jean -- Jean R. Lobry ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Laboratoire BBE-CNRS-UMR-5558, Univ. C. Bernard - LYON I, 43 Bd 11/11/1918, F-69622 VILLEURBANNE CEDEX, FRANCE allo : +33 472 43 12 87 fax : +33 472 43 13 88 http://pbil.univ-lyon1.fr/members/lobry/
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