> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > A very intriguing commentary! > Some comments to "modulate" these estimates. > > On 19-Apr-04 Kevin S. Van Horn wrote: > > 1. It appears that there are about 100,000 S-PLUS users. > > > > Rationale: According to Insightful's 2002 Annual Report, > over 100,000 > > people use Insightful software; since license revenues from > S-PLUS and > > add-on modules accounted for nearly all of their license > revenues in > > 2002, and their other products are much more costly than S-PLUS, it > > seems that the great majority of users of Insightful software are > > S-PLUS > > users. > > > > Conclusion: S-PLUS costs $3500 (Windows) or $4500 > (Linux/Unix) for an > > individual copy; R is free. This suggests that there may be more R > > users than S-PLUS users, which suggests > 100,000 R users. > > > > Does anyone has any other information that would give some > notion as to > > the RELATIVE numbers of R and S-PLUS users? > > There is one major factor in here. The number of Windows users > in the world is much higher than the number of Unix/Linux users, > especially in the corporate sector. Organisations whose work > needs R/S-PLUS and whose IT is Windows based will (I believe) > mostly go for S-PLUS (I could expand in my reasons for believing > this). Therefore I suspect that in the 2-way table > > Windows Unix/Linux > S-PLUS N11 N12 > > R N21 N22 > > you are likely to find that N11/N21 >> N12/N22. > Certainly N11+N21 > N12+N22. This tends to imply N11+N12 > N12+N22. > The relative cost of S-PLUS vs R is not likely to be a factor in > the choice, for most corporate users. Therefore I would lower your > estimate, here, of R usage quite a bit (though I can't guess by > how much). > > > 2. At least one R book has achieved sales of just over > 5,000 copies. > > (I could not find sales figures for other R books, as it > appears that > > publishers are closed-mouthed about such figures. And no, I can't > > reveal which particular book this was, so don't ask.) > > > > Conclusion: Very few books sell to more than 12% of the > population of > > potential buyers, and most books have a far lower > penetration -- 1% or > > less is not uncommon. A 12% penetration for the book in question > > implies 42,000 R users; a more reasonable 5% penetration implies > > 100,000 > > users. A low 1% penetration implies 500,000 users. > > Comment: More R users are likely to buy a book on R than S-PLUS > users are likely to buy a book on S-PLUS. S-PLUS users who do > buy a book may in fact buy a book on R rather than S-PLUS, if > that book is well known to be good. (I'm assuming that the > "R book" you refer to is R-specific rather than written for > both R and S-PLUS or for "S-PLUS with R variations"; otherwise > you have to take off the S-PLUS-only purchasers) > > > 3. There are a total of 3225 unique subscribers to the > three R mailing > > lists. > > I think this may be the most directly informative piece of data > (though still on the soft side). People who use R are likely to > become aware of the mailing lists, and to subscribe. So I suspect > that this number exceeds say 20-40% of R users (you can't be precise > with this sort of intuitive guess). This would suggest 7000-16000 R > users. > You might perhaps double or triple this to allow for groups where > one member of the group subscribes as the "spokesman" for the rest. > Maybe also inflate a bit to allow for R users who don't think > they need to consult mailing lists (who are they??).
How about those poor students who don't know how lucky they are to have instructors forcing R upon them for a course? I'd bet they are very unlikely to subscribe to the list(s). Although I don't know if one would want to include them as `R users'... Best, Andy > Hmmm! > Ted. > > > -------------------------------------------------------------------- > E-Mail: (Ted Harding) <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Fax-to-email: +44 (0)870 167 1972 > Date: 19-Apr-04 Time: 21:22:51 > ------------------------------ XFMail ------------------------------ > > ______________________________________________ > [EMAIL PROTECTED] mailing list > https://www.stat.math.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help > PLEASE do read the posting guide! > http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html > > ______________________________________________ [EMAIL PROTECTED] mailing list https://www.stat.math.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide! http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
