Prof Brian Ripley wrote:
I think
1) You have the units wrong: these appear to be the figures quoted for KB of compressed files, and the compression is nothing like 1024:1.
2) This is not `a series' unless you add a time base, e.g. via a call to ts().
Surely subscribers are aware that they do not get many MB/day and that extrapolation to that level is just speculation.
So let's be immensely unfair and do some speculation ...
Assuming 1000MB/month means a compressed archive file of (very) *roughly* 250MB.
Looking at the data with linear models, lm(sqrt(MB) ~ monthindex) seems not to be the worst model (removing the first observation, perhaps).
So a very *rough* extrapolation shows us that we will get 1000MB/month around 2142.
I hope I'll get a better machine in 137 years to handle all the expected traffic. ;-)
Best, Uwe
On Sat, 26 Feb 2005 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Hi Folks,
While I was browsing in the R-help archives yesterday, I got curious about the time series of the sizes of the monthly archives in MB.
This turned out to have an unexpected feature or two, which I leave to readers to explore for themselves.
I'm now wondering at what point in time we might expect to be receiving 1000MB/month (30+MB/day). It's not that far away, it seems, but there are a couple of interesting modelling questions behind it.
In particular, I wonder by what mechanism the numbers grow, according to the law which the data seem to indicate.
Over to you.
(just my 0.001 MB worth ... excluding headers)
Ted
To save you the trouble, the following sets up the series:
MB<-c(55,19,19,18,19,17,35,27,47, 55,32,50,55,41,49,50,28,53,42,81,54, 99,60,84,80,76,75,78,61,83,97,141,122, 96,144,173,153,226,202,131,165,183,175,168,187, 240,272,262,195,236,244,285,249,326,345,392,268, 455,320,418,453,468,422,447,400,323,516,478,327, 450,487,535,658,573,606,659,543,655,722,677,567, 519,703,886,793,719,816,812,730,698,831,969,736, 855)
April 1997 -- January 2005
-------------------------------------------------------------------- E-Mail: (Ted Harding) <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Fax-to-email: +44 (0)870 094 0861 Date: 26-Feb-05 Time: 10:31:05 ------------------------------ XFMail ------------------------------
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