I haven't seen other replies, so I'll offer a feeble comment:  
It's not clear to me the "events" for which you want to estimate 
probabilities.  If you would still like help from this listserve, I 
suggest you send us a toy example with typical (possibly made up) "data" 
consisting of 5-10 "observations" on 2-4 individuals.  Then tell us what 
you'd like to do in terms of this toy example, possibly including things 
you've tried and why they didn't seem to give you what you wanted. 

      Hope this helps. 
      Spencer Graves

Jon Minton wrote:
> This is probably very simple but my brain has frozen over. (I'm trying to
> warm it with coffee)
>
>  
>
> I have observations of around 22000 individuals over 13 successive years:
> they were either 'interviewed' at time t or 'not interviewed'.
>
> What's the most appropriate function/approach to use to find out the extent
> to which individuals' event outcomes are temporally correlated?
>
>  
>
> Thanks,
>
>  
>
>  
>
> Jon Minton
>
>  
>
>  
>
>
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>
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