Richard Pitman <richard.pitman3 <at> btopenworld.com> writes:

> 
> I am new to R and am trying to fit a survival curve with a weibull
> hazard function to a set of data giving the probability of survival to
> age x, given the year of birth, in the form:
> 
> Probability of survival:
>                       Birth year
>               1980    1981    ...     2003
>       .2      0.90    0.89    ...     0.87
>       1       0.80    0.81    ...     0.79
> age   2       0.75    0.74    ...     0.73
>       3       0.70    0.69    ...     0.68
>       5       0.50    0.49    ...     0.43
>       10      0.30    0.31    ...     0.26
> 
> I would like to be able to fit a curve to each birth cohort, extrapolate
> the curve a few years and be able to create a plot of the survival
> curves.
> 


  You don't have enough data for a standard survival analysis,
which is based on individual-level survival times.  (You don't
even know the total cohort size, which you would need to know
to fit a binomial model.)  However, you can compute the _expected_
probabilities of survival to age a using dweibull(a) [or,
since your categories are fairly coarse, pweibull(a2)-pweibull(a1)].
As a starting point, you could try a least-squares fit through
the data -- again, this is not quite right, but in the
absence of information about sample size it's a little hard
to know how to weight the different points.

  Hope that helps.
   Ben Bolker

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