Dear all,
We're excited to announce our upcoming online course on Ecological Time Series
Analysis and Forecasting in R, scheduled from May 27th to May 31st, 2024.
Course website: [
https://www.physalia-courses.org/courses-workshops/time-series-in-r/ ](
https://www.physalia-courses.org/courses-workshops/time-series-in-r/ )
Course Overview:
Time series analysis and forecasting are essential in applied ecology, but
traditional methods often fall short when dealing with ecological data's
complexities. In this course, we'll delve into dynamic processes using Bayesian
modeling software Stan, alongside packages like {mvgam} and {brms}. You'll
learn to wrangle, visualize, and explore ecological time series, gaining
insights and producing accurate forecasts.
Target Audience and Assumed Background:
This course is designed for those people who wish to enhance their skills in
dynamic modeling. Participants should have some knowledge of regression and
fluency in R programming. We'll cover the necessary concepts, making it
accessible even for beginners.
Learning Outcomes:
1. Understand how dynamic GLMs and GAMs work to capture both nonlinear
covariate effects and temporal dependence2. Be able to fit dynamic GLMs and
GAMs in R using the {mvgam} and {brms} packages3. Understand how to
critique, visualize and compare fitted dynamic models4. Know how to produce
forecasts from dynamic models and evaluate their accuracies using probabilistic
scoring rules
The course runs from 9:00 AM to 12:00 PM Berlin time, with live lectures and
practical sessions. Additional self-guided practicals will be available,
allowing you to reinforce your learning at your own pace.
Course Schedule:
- Monday: Introduction to time series, visualization, and traditional models.
- Tuesday: Dynamic GLMs and GAMs, autoregressive processes, Gaussian Processes.
- Wednesday: Forecasting, evaluation, Bayesian posterior predictive checks.
- Thursday: Multivariate time series, vector autoregressive processes, dynamic
factor models.
- Friday: Extended practical examples using {mvgam}.
Best regards,
Carlo
--------------------
Carlo Pecoraro, Ph.D
Physalia-courses DIRECTOR
i...@physalia-courses.org
mobile: +49 17645230846
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