Hi, Darko,
Am 02.02.2012 07:44, schrieb Roupell, Darko:
Hi All,
I am trying to cross check option implied employee option price that was
derived using Monte Carlo simulation. Below is code and parameter used and
after accounting for dividend yield ( 1.46%) the derived option price is
206.8843 using the code snippet provided. Approx 1 cent below 207.95 that is
listed in company prospect using their Monte Carlo simulation and below
parameters.
As we all know number of iteration can also slightly impact the average price,
but am I rightly concerned that my methodology may not be correct?
Hm, I have not really looked at your programme so I cannot comment
whether it is correct. But we are talking about a difference of about
half a percentage point here. Which is not much. I just ran you script
20 times.
> summary(results)
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
205.6 206.0 206.3 206.3 206.8 206.9
Admittedly, all results are all below the company's price, but
nevertheless: they vary.
There are details that they might have done differently. For instance,
you do not compound (if I see correctly). What if you replaced
riskFreeRate*timeToExpiry
with
(1+riskFreeRate)*timeToExpiry-1
But even if that gives you the price: from a practical point of view,
the difference is small, really.
(Much better would be to check what would happen if the div did not turn
out as expected, if the vol were different, etc)
Regards,
Enrico
Any feedback will be appreciated.
exercisePrice = 0;
timeToExpiry = 3; #% in years
underlyingPrice = 490; #% underlying in cents
expectedVol = 0.5; #% expected volatility
expectedDiv = 0.0146; #% expected dividend in cents
riskFreeRate = 0.0425; #% interest rate
itr = 500000 #% number of iterations
delS = 0*array(0,itr)
for( i in (1:itr))
{
eps = rnorm(1) #% random number generator
dS =
expectedDiv*underlyingPrice+underlyingPrice*(riskFreeRate*timeToExpiry) +
(underlyingPrice*expectedVol*eps*sqrt(timeToExpiry))
mv = dS - exercisePrice;
delS[i] = max(mv,0);
}
mean(delS)
__________________________________________________
Commonwealth Bank
Darko Roupell
Associate Quantitative Analyst
Institutional Banking& Markets
Equities Research
Darling Park Tower 1
Level 23, 201 Sussex Street
Sydney, NSW 2000
P: +61 2 9117 1254
F: +61 2 9118 1000
M: +61 400 170 515
E: darko.roup...@cba.com.au
[...]
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Enrico Schumann
Lucerne, Switzerland
http://nmof.net/
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