geof.jackett wrote:
>
> Hello Peter
>
>
>
> I am a little puzzled as to what reliance should be given to the %
> chance to win when the actual score of the horse is only about 100
> points difference between first selection and second selection. This
> occurs in race 6 at Matamata tomorrow.
>
>
>
> I would have thought if there was a greater gap between the two horses
> on the rating numbers this would drive the % score up
Hi Geof,
The score difference in that race is actually closer to 300 points. I
have attached the MARGINS Method ratings for that race for you to check.
With regards the % chances, the score difference is not the only factor
that goes into determining what the percentage should be.
Peter.
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2:47 RACE 6 - 27 Apr 2005 MATA Firm Prg2 1600 Ch : RB (MG) (JR)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1st: 2 ARLINGTONBOULEV 3315104022 ( 8) 55.5 N HARRIS 50.6
3 F SPINNING WORLD-GOLDEN BRIDGE 46.0 950.1
FEFFFEFFFF T( 10 2 4) F( 8 2 3) C( 2
1 1) D( 3 1 0) J( 7 1 2) 1:36.43 4
2nd: 1 PATROL 3130507 580 X023826222 ( 2) 57.0 B HERD 50.2
5 G DESERT SUN-GYPSY INVADER 17.0 625.2
FFFEFFE FFS FEEEFEFFE T( 26 3 9) F(13 1 5) C( 4
2 1) D(17 1 7) J( 0 0 0) 1:35.87 2
3rd: 3 RELY ON ME 696415X240 1 2107X64X ( 4) 55.5 C LAMMAS 52.9
5 G BIGSTONE-OPERA SINGER 16.8 356.3
FEHFEE SFE F SHHH FE T( 16 3 2) F( 5 1 0) C( 2
0 0) D(11 2 2) J( 3 1 0) 1:35.85 1
4th: 5 CARAVANSERAI 25 X1 2545X48193355 ( 3) 52.0 C ORMSBY 49.8
4 G KASHANI-NIGHT FLIGHT 7.7 302.9
FF S HHHS FFFFFFEF T( 15 2 4) F( 9 1 3) C( 3
0 1) D( 3 0 1) J( 1 0 0) 1:37.41 6
5th: AWESOME KING ( 7) 55.0 128.4
6th: ASCLEPIUS ( 5) 54.5 71.9
7th: SPRING SEASONS ( 6) 54.5 -41.3
8th: MELANION ( 1) 51.0 -354.9
