----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 01, 2005 8:58 PM
Subject: Re: [racebase] Clash of All's
Well and Millnorm
Klaus wrote:
Just trying to work out which of these two will win. It's the obvious
quinella, but I have difficulties in sorting out the winner. Both have
excellent distance and Heavy abilities. At the moment I am leaning towards
Millnorm because he has the better record over the distance, won more races
and is in form and he won his last one by over 5L.
The final field quotes seem to suggest All's Well to be the favourite at
$2.25 and Millnorm at $4.00.
Does anyone have an opinion on this race.
Hi Klaus,
Although the Avondale track is heavy, the area five
horse widths out from the fence is fresh ground and hasn't been used since
March. That said it will probably be churned up somewhat by the time
they run this race.
It has been fine in Auckland today with another
fine day forecast tomorrow, but the track is unlikely to improve much.
Therefore the surface is likely to be puggy and sticky and will not
suit horses who excel in loose ground. Unless you keep notes
regarding which horses like holding tracks and which like loose conditions
then it's a lottery.
For what it's worth -- probably not much -- I'll go
for ALL'S WELL as MILLNORM does prefer the loose stuff. And he's on his
home track, has 1.5 kg less and is four years younger. But I still won't
be parting with any cash.
My opinion is to keep money in the bank and
to stare out the window and wait for spring :-}
Regards
Neil F
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