PRINCETON, NJ -- Thirty-eight percent of independents
approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, the
first time independent approval of Obama has dropped below
40% in a Gallup Daily tracking weekly aggregate.
Meanwhile, Obama maintains the support of 81% of
Democrats, and his job approval among Republicans remains
low, at 12%.
![July
2009-July 2010 Trend: Barack Obama Presidential Job
Approval Rating, by Party, Weekly Aggregates]()
These data are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews
conducted the week of June 28-July 4.
Over the past year, Obama has lost support among all
party groups, though the decline has been steeper among
independents than among Republicans or Democrats. Today's
38% approval rating among independents is 18 percentage
points lower than the 56% found July 6-12, 2009. During
the same period, his support has fallen nine points among
Democrats (from 90% to 81%) and eight points among
Republicans (from 20% to 12%).
Overall, 46% of Americans approve of the job Obama is
doing as president in the June 28-July 4 aggregate, one
point above his lowest weekly average. Obama's
average weekly job approval rating has not been
above 50% since Feb. 8-14, though it reached the 50% mark
as recently as May 3-9.
Obama's lower ratings come amid a still-struggling
economy, the ongoing difficulties presented by the oil
spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and the recent change of
command in the war in Afghanistan. Underscoring the
challenge at hand, Obama's
44% approval rating in July 2-5 polling (Gallup did
not interview July 4) ties his lowest three-day average to
date.
Bottom Line
Obama is not alone in facing a challenging second year in
office -- Bill Clinton (43%), Ronald Reagan (42%), and
Jimmy Carter (40%) all were below the majority approval
level in July of their second year. Of course, each of
those presidents saw his party lose
a substantial number of seats in that year's midterm
congressional elections, though both Reagan and Clinton
recovered in time to win a second term as president.
Gallup
Daily tracking of Election 2010 voting preferences
suggests a more favorable Republican than Democratic
outcome this year if the elections were held today. Even
so, there are still nearly four months remaining before
the elections, and thus, time for the Democrats' prospects
to improve.