World Citizen: The Death of Chavismo
Frida Ghitis | 15 July 2010
_World Politics Review_ (http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/)
When the global economic crisis struck, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez
gloated. The woes of capitalism, he believed, would give a boost to his
brand, helping spread Chavismo throughout Latin America. Chávez, the designer
of that unique ad hoc blend of personality-driven socialism and nervously
semi-free markets, prophesied the imminent collapse of capitalism. He
confidently promised his followers that, under his leadership, Venezuela would
remain "armor plated" against recession.
Today, capitalism appears to be limping back to life thanks to generous
infusions of government funding. The news for Chávez and his followers, on
the other hand, _looks rather dismal_
(http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/5070/world-citizen-2010-will-be-a-reckoning-for-hugo-ch-vez)
(http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/5070/world-citizen-2010-will-be-a-reckoni
ng-for-hugo-ch-vez) . Not only is the Venezuelan economy sliding down an
ever-accelerating spiral to disaster, but Chávez's philosophy is rapidly
losing its appeal. Chávez and a few of his ideological soulmates may remain in
power, but Chavismo as an ideology is slowly dying.
In a continent where economic growth and the alleviation of poverty remain
pressing needs, the Chavista model has lost its battle for regional
primacy to the progressive reform policies developed by Brazil and Chile,
where
poverty is receding and living standards are climbing.
Pessimism about the prospects for Venezuelan prosperity and for Chávez's
ability to influence the region has become so prevalent that when the Cuban
government recently agreed to free a number of political prisoners, _some
speculated_
(http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6ce9ba68-8d04-11df-bad7-00144feab49a.html)
(http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6ce9ba68-8d04-11df-bad7-00144feab49a.html)
that Havana was trying to improve ties with the U.S. in order to "hedge
its geostrategic bets."
Other key Chávez allies have become pariahs among their own people, and
the Venezuelan president's efforts _to influence elections_
(http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/Chávez-loses-colombia-0)
(http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/Chávez-loses-colombia-0) are producing
the opposite of their
intended result. When a Colombian presidential candidate said he admired
Chávez,
he was forced to rephrase his praise amid an upswelling of criticism, and
subsequently lost ground in the polls. Meanwhile, Juan Manuel Santos, the
Colombian candidate Chávez fulminated against, went on to win a landslide
victory.
Chavismo, which many once believed would bring lasting relief to the poor,
is becoming synonymous with power-hungry and socially divisive
presidencies, heavy-handed and destructive government intervention, and brazen
assaults on democracy.
The Chavista model is a combination of economic and political policies
with very clear characteristics. On the political side, Chavismo aims to
maintain the appearance of democracy, critical to preserving the legitimacy of
the regime. But while the shell of democratic institutions generally remains
in place, their ability to function in support of pluralism is nullified
by stacking all the branches and all the institutions of government with
individuals subservient to the president. Gradually, democratic institutions
and rules are subverted until the president is allowed to remain in power,
at least in theory, as long as he wishes.
On the economic front, the model relies on the nationalization of natural
resources and the enterprises that monetize them as the principal source of
funding for generous government subsidies of the poor. Beyond that, the
government cherry picks whole industries and individual businesses to
nationalize. The choice of which business to expropriate is based on a
combination
of its strategic importance, its political influence, and the personal
animosity the president feels toward its owners. The government generally
allows free enterprise to function, although it frequently makes ostentatious
displays of pressuring businessmen to lower prices or "stop hoarding," in an
effort to bolster populist support. This adds to the dangerous
polarization of society in every country that Chavista governments have taken
power,
creating the potential for violence.
The Chavista model has been followed, to different degrees, in countries
where close allies of the Venezuelan president have taken the top office,
including Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Ecuador.
One reason Chavismo has stopped gaining new converts is that the
movement's funding stream -- Venezuela's oil-fueled cash reserves -- has
started
running short. For years, Chávez's largesse has helped finance the economies
of his allies, as well as the economies of leaders that Chávez was courting
to join the movement. Chavismo has always relied on the support of the poor
to maintain its legitimacy. That support required cash for desperately
needed social programs. But Venezuela's economic crisis is making it
increasingly difficult for Chávez to boost spending for the benefit of other
politicians.
The extent of _Venezuela's economic problems_
(http://english.eluniversal.com/2010/07/02/en_ing_esp_except-for-venezuela_01A4120013.shtml)
(http://english.eluniversal.com/2010/07/02/en_ing_esp_except-for-venezuela_01A4120013.s
html) is staggering -- and most of it can be directly linked to Chávez's
policies. The economy is groaning under the weight of soaring inflation,
net currency outflows, extremely high rates of crime, high government
spending, and falling production. And many of the problems are devastating the
poor, Chávez's base. Inflation in May reached a new record -- more than 5
percent for the month -- with food costs up more than 11 percent. Annual
inflation, according to conservative government figures, has topped 30
percent.
The economy is shrinking rapidly, even as much of Latin America returns to
strong growth. In 2009, foreign direct investment totaled negative $3.1
billion, down from a positive $349 million in 2008. That means businesses are
taking money out of Venezuela at a breath-taking pace. It also means there
is a shortage of dollars, which has sent the local currency plunging in the
black market, adding to inflation.
Nobody wants to invest in Venezuela because the government can decide to
take over their business on a presidential whim. And if they challenge the
president, as some -- including some former friends -- have done, they could
end up charged with a crime.
Guillermo Zuloaga, head of Globovision, the last remaining news outlet
critical of the president, has fled the country after being charged with bogus
crimes. _He says_
(http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/17/venezuelan-tv-boss-flees-regime)
(http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/17/venezuelan-tv-boss-flees-regime)
that Chávez has created a "reign of terror."
Between energy shortages, loss of jobs, out-of-control crime, and no
prospects for economic recovery any time soon, Chávez's once-passionate
support
among the poor is gradually disappearing. A recent poll showed that 64
percent of Venezuelans don't want him to stay in power beyond this term, even
though he has declared his wish -- and his intention -- to stay in power
until 2030.
Other Chavista regimes are facing even angrier electorates. Nicaragua's
President Daniel Ortega has seen his support plummet to about 20 percent. The
former Sandinista guerrilla fighter is _twisting himself in unflattering
knots_ (http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1983865,00.html)
(http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1983865,00.html) to keep his
grip on power. A recent maneuver had the Supreme Court declare that term
limits don't apply to him. Antipathy towards the former rebel leader is
growing
even among his old supporters, who are _joining forces with the opposition_
(http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2002920,00.html)
(http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2002920,00.html) to resist the
president. A group of former Sandinistas called the Movement Against
Re-election
and Fraud says Ortega is trying to create a "totalitarian regime," and they
vow to stop him. Their slogan -- "If there is re-election, there will be
insurrection" -- foreshadows violence if the Nicaraguan president manages to
overcome the muscular push against him.
Ortega, whose approval ratings are _the lowest in Latin America_
(http://centralamericanpolitics.blogspot.com/2010/04/presidential-approval-ratings.html
)
(http://centralamericanpolitics.blogspot.com/2010/04/presidential-approval-ratings.html)
, has become Chávez's last remaining ally in Central
America, following the overthrow of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya. Zelaya's
presidency ended when his opponents claimed he was following in Chávez's
footsteps by trying to extend his time in office through illegal maneuvers.
In South America, Bolivia and Ecuador still have presidents who can be
termed Chavistas. But even Bolivia's President Evo Morales, who governs one of
the poorest countries in the Western Hemisphere, has seen _his approval
ratings drop_
(http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/president_morales_sees_sharp_drop_in_bolivia/)
(http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/president_morales_sees_sharp_drop_in_bolivia/)
more than 22 percent in the last few
months.
Despite the depth of Venezuela's economic problems, it may take many years
before Chávez and other Chavista governments in Latin America take that
final step into the pages of history. But there is little doubt that the
ideological power of Hugo Chávez and his followers is now past its peak. What
remains unclear is how hard they will fight to remain in office as
opposition to their rule intensifies.
--
Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community
<[email protected]>
Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism
Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
