New Republic
How Americans’ Shifting Political Ideologies Threaten the Democrats
* _William Galston_
(http://www.tnr.com/blog/william-galston/76631/democrats-republicans-popularity-new-demographics#)
* July 28, 2010
In a recent post, _Jonathan Chait_
(http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/76612/conservative-hatred-vs-liberal-hatred)
rightly calls our attention
to the _Pew survey_ (http://people-press.org/report/636/) released July 16
that showed how voters rate political parties’ ideologies. While I agree
with Chait’s interpretation of the data he cites, I want to underscore the
significance of some other information in the survey—namely, where voters
identify themselves in relation to the parties.
On the whole, 58 percent of voters see Democrats as liberal or very
liberal, while 56 percent see Republicans as conservative or very
conservative; no
surprise there. But voters now place themselves much closer to the
Republican Party than to the Democratic Party on this left-right continuum.
Indeed, the ideological gap between the Democratic Party and the mean voter is
about three times as large as the separation between that voter and the
Republican Party. And, startlingly, the electorate places itself a bit closer
to
the Tea Party movement (which is well to the right of the Republican
Party) than to the Democratic Party. All this represents a major shift from
five
years ago, when mean voters placed themselves exactly halfway between
their ideological perceptions of the Democratic and Republican parties.
The Pew survey also shows that Democrats are far more ideologically diverse
than Republicans. Twenty-four percent of Democrats describe themselves as
conservative or very conservative, while only 5 percent of Republicans call
themselves liberal or very liberal. Conversely, 65 percent of Republicans
think of themselves as conservative or very conservative, while only 42
percent of Democrats self-identify as liberal or very liberal. This helps
explain why 83 percent of Republicans see the Democratic Party as more liberal
than they themselves are—while only 60 percent of Democrats place the
Republican Party to the right of where they place themselves.
Shifts among Independents are especially notable. A Pew survey in _June
2005_
(http://people-press.org/report/247/supreme-courts-image-declines-as-nomination-battle-looms)
found that Independents considered the Republican
Party to be twice as distant from them ideologically as the Democratic Party.
Today, Independents see the Democratic Party as three times farther away
than the Republican Party. In 2005, 51 percent of Independents thought that
the Republican Party was more conservative than they themselves were, versus
only 36 percent who thought that the Democratic Party was more liberal.
Today, 56 percent of Independents see the Democratic Party as more liberal
than they themselves are, compared to only 39 percent who see the Republican
Party as more conservative.
In _May 2009_
(http://people-press.org/report/517/political-values-and-core-attitudes) ,
after Obama had taken office and the broad political debate
had shifted away from social issues and national security toward the economy
and federal regulation, Pew found that Independents had begun to move
toward the Republican Party. This month’s survey suggests a continuation of
this trend in Obama’s second year.
Three politically relevant conclusions follow from these data. First,
Democrats’ greater diversity means that party leaders are bound to have more
trouble managing their coalition than the Republicans will theirs. Second, the
Independents who helped Democrats score a notable success in the 2006
midterm elections may well do the same for Republicans in 2010.
The third conclusion to be drawn from the poll is that, whether Democrats
lose control of the Congress or remain in power with much narrower
majorities, Obama’s challenge will resemble the one Bill Clinton faced after
1994—
namely, reestablishing his standing among those voters outside of the
Democratic base whose support spells the difference between retaining and
losing
a national majority. I’m not necessarily suggesting that Obama should do
that the way Clinton did, by championing small-bore issues—such as school
uniforms—designed to send reassuring messages to the electorate. But I am
suggesting that he should bring comparable focus and clarity to the task of
broadening his appeal beyond his core supporters… and organize his White House
to maximize the chances that he can accomplish that task.
--
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