Many political observers were stunned by the new Gallup
poll showing the Republican party with a 10-point advantage
in the so-called "generic ballot" question. Now we have a
better idea how that happened.
According to new, more detailed Gallup numbers,
Democratic advantages on issues like health care, the
economy, and handling corruption in government have simply
disappeared. Democratic leads that were enormous when the
party took control of Congress in 2006 have dwindled to
nothing or have now become Republican advantages.
The most striking example is in health care. Back in October 2006, just
before Democrats won control of Congress, Gallup asked the
traditional question, "Do you think the Republicans in
Congress or the Democrats in Congress would do a better job
dealing with [the following issue]…" At that time, Democrats
held a 64 percent to 25 percent lead on health care -- a 39
percentage-point advantage. Now, after Democrats passed
their long-dreamed-of national health care bill, the result
is 44 percent for Democrats versus 43 percent for
Republicans -- a virtual tie. That is an enormous advantage
to have thrown away during four years in power.
The news is just as bad for Democrats on the economy. In
October 2006, Democrats held a 53 to 37 lead over
Republicans on the issue. Now, after Democrats passed an
$862 billion stimulus bill and touted 2010 as the "summer of
recovery," Republicans hold a 49 to 38 lead. Democrats have
gone from having a 16 point lead to being 11 points behind.
Then there is the question of dealing with corruption in
government. Back in '06, a large majority -- 51 percent to
28 percent -- trusted Democrats more than Republicans to
deal with the issue. Now, with Democrats facing high-profile
ethics proceedings in Congress, Republicans hold a 38 to 35
lead.
Back in 2006, things had gotten so bad for Republicans that
Democrats took the lead even in a traditionally Republican
area: protecting the country against terrorism. Just before
the '06 elections, Democrats held a 47 to 42 lead on
protecting against terrorism. Now, after Ft. Hood, Detroit,
and the Times Square bombing attempt, Republicans hold a 55
to 31 lead.
The only issue on which Democrats hold the lead today is
the environment.
So look at the swings away from the Democratic party: a
38-point swing on health care, a 27-point swing on the
economy, a 26-point swing on handling corruption in
government, a 29-point swing on combating terrorism. All the
progress Democrats had made on those issues during the Bush
years has gone away. Is it any wonder Democratic strategists
are approaching this November's elections in a state of
panic?
