Well, aren't you Mr. Sunshine
today?? :-(
David
To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the
propagation of
ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and
tyrannical.--Thomas Jefferson
On 10/24/2010 3:21 PM, [email protected] wrote:
Analysis:
Israelis, Palestinians eye US midterm elections
By
ASSOCIATED PRESS
10/24/2010
14:43
There
is a foreboding sense in Israel that punishment is on the
way — especially if Obama emerges from the midterms
unscathed.
Israelis and Palestinians were
closely watching next month's US midterm race amid a sense
— rarely discussed openly but very much on people's minds
— that the result could affect the US-led peace effort,
and US President Barack Obama's ability to coax
concessions from Israel.
Animating the discussion is the startling fact that the
United States has failed, despite emphatic public appeals
by Obama and weeks of increasingly frustrating diplomacy,
to persuade Israel to extend the settlement-building
slowdown that expired on September 26.
That caused Palestinians to, in effect, suspend the
US-brokered peace talks just weeks after they began.
The Palestinians are now hoping that Obama has reacted
mildly to Israel's rejection because of political
considerations ahead of the November 2 vote — and might be
freer to apply pressure after the elections.
"We think that if President
Obama emerges strong from this
election, then this will enable him to work more on
foreign policy," Palestinian Authority negotiator Nabil
Sha'ath told The Associated Press. "If he and his party
lose in the elections, then this will limit his ability to
pressure and actively engage in foreign policy. This is
the problem."
Although Israeli officials avoid discussing the topic
publicly for fear of alienating its most important ally,
there is a foreboding sense in Israel that punishment is
on the way — especially if Obama emerges unscathed.
Nahum Barnea, a respected and widely-read columnist, put
it this way in Friday's Yediot
Ahronot: "The problem is the disgust and rage
that the Israeli refusal sparked in the administration — a
rage that is being suppressed at the moment, but which
will erupt in full force on November 3, after the
elections to Congress. The Americans are seeking the logic
behind the refusal ... and are finding nothing."
But if recent polls are proved accurate and Republicans
take one or both houses of Congress, a chastened president
might be too busy or weakened to pressure Jerusalem much,
the thinking goes.
If Congress tilts Republican it could have a "positive
impact" on Israeli concerns, one adviser to Prime Minister
Binyamin
Netanyahu told The AP — an
allusion to avoiding pressure for concessions. With the
Democrats weakened, Israel's friends in Congress — both
Democrat and Republican — "would be able to have a
stronger voice if the administration should embark on a
policy that is less favorable to Israel," he added.
US foreign policy is set by the White House, not Congress.
But Congress can influence it in the course of the
day-to-day political horse trading that goes on between
the executive and legislative branches.
For example, when Republicans controlled the House of
Representatives during Netanyahu's first term in the late
1990s, the prime minister was able to marshal the support
of the party's conservative wing in a face-off with then
US President Bill Clinton over stepped-up settlement
construction and Israeli troop pullbacks in the West Bank.
Traditionally, both branches have been bastions of support
for Israel no matter which party is in charge. But
conservative Republican legislators tend to be less
critical of Israel's contentious settlement policy and
more hawkish — and therefore supportive — on the security
issues that are uppermost in Israel's mind.
The Israeli government has had, at best, uneasy relations
with Obama himself.
Obama took office in early 2009 promising bold changes in
American policy in the Middle East and in one of his first
official acts appointed a Mideast peace envoy.
He soon traveled to Egypt, the heart of the Arab world, in
a high-profile gesture to Muslims. The speech included a
condemnation of Israeli settlements, winning over
Palestinians while alarming the Israeli government.
Tensions peaked in March over Israel's approval of a major
construction plan in east Jerusalem during a visit by US Vice
President Joe Biden. The move
infuriated Biden, and Obama later publicly snubbed
Netanyahu during a White House meeting. Although relations
have mended, Mideast peace talks launched by Obama in
early September are at an impasse over renewed settlement
construction.
In the United States, foreign policy has barely registered
on the radar screen in the run-up to the election. Blamed
by many for the still-struggling economy and unemployment
hovering around 10 percent, the Democrats find their
majority at risk, especially in the House of
Representatives, where all 435 seats are on the ballot.
Republicans could also make significant gains against the
Democrat majority in the Senate, where 37 of 100 seats are
up for grabs.
David Makovsky, senior fellow at the Washington Institute
for Near East Policy, said a hypothetical Republican
majority could be a "profound constraint" on Obama's
ability to push Israel to make concessions for a peace
deal. But he also said such thinking could backfire: "It's
possible that the net effect of his losing the ability to
pass domestic legislation might make him a 100 percent
foreign policy president," said Makovsky, whose think tank
has good relations with Israel.
Some in Israel have expressed concerns that Obama might
put forward his own ideas for peace and try to impose a
settlement if negotiations bog down.
Obama has set the ambitious goal of brokering a final
Israeli-Palestinian peace deal by next September — hoping
to do what a string of US presidents have failed to do in
nearly two decades of stop-and-start peace efforts.
Obama will not "allow himself to be constrained by
domestic politics if an opportunity avails itself," said
Aaron David Miller, a senior former State Department
official involved in negotiations. "He's not suicidal —
but if there were an opportunity, he'd go for it."
--
Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community
<[email protected]>
Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism
Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
--
Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]>
Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism
Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
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