Not sure what to make of this.
David
ORourke1 Signature
"Anyone
who thinks he has a better idea of what's good for
people than people do is a swine."--P. J. O’Rourke
-------- Original Message --------
THE GOP PRIMARIES OF 12 WILL BE HELD ON FOX NEWS
By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN
Published on DickMorris.com
on November 29, 2010
Printer-Friendly Version
The Republican nominating process of 2012 will be totally
different from that of other years. In fact, it will be the
opposite of what we are used to.
Since the procedural reforms initiated by Democrat George
McGovern - that carried over into the Republican Party as well -
primaries have determined the winner of the nominations in each
party. Iowa and New Hampshire - the first caucus and the first
primary in the nation - have tended to sort out the candidates
for us. They narrowed down the field and left the rest of the
nation with two or three alternatives in each party.
These
two small states dominated the process because the contenders
usually did not have the money to wage national campaigns. They
could only afford to run in these two small states at the start
of the campaign. And those who could afford to compete
nationally (Hillary, Rudy Giuliani, and Mitt Romney) were forced
to battle in these two states because they were the first test.
Their superior financial resources availed them little in states
so small that the purchase of TV time would not drain their
treasuries.
![Give John Wayne for
Christmas!]() |
In effect, Iowa and New
Hampshire have become the quarter-finals, narrowing
the field down to two candidates in each party who
compete in the subsequent primaries. In 2000, Al
Gore and Bill Bradly were the Democratic
semi-finalists who survived these early rounds and
George Bush and John McCain were their Republican
equivalents. In 2004, John Kerry and John Edwards
emerged as the alternatives. In 2008, Iowa and New
Hampshire winnowed down the Democratic field to
Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama and the Republican
contest to John McCain vs. Mike Huckabee. The other
contenders - Giuliani, Romney, Edwards, Dodd, et al
- may have staggered on for a few more rounds, but
their candidacies were doomed. (Romney won New
Hampshire, but his victory was largely discounted
because he came from Massachusetts next door).
Now, in the Republican primaries, it will be
different. The short list of contenders for the
nomination will not be chosen in the early
primaries. Iowa and New Hampshire will not impose
their will on America. America will impose its will
on Iowa and New Hampshire. |
The
quarter finals will not be waged in the cornfields of Iowa or
the former mill towns of New Hampshire. They will be held in
the living rooms of America among the Fox News audience!
The share of the GOP electorate that watches Fox News has become
so dominant that the early stages of the Republican nominating
process will be held on its air waves. It is there - not in the
early morning handshaking at factory gates in Iowa and New
Hampshire - that we will meet the candidates and come to choose
our favorites.
About half of those who call themselves Republicans in the
United States report that they watch Fox News every night and
two-thirds say they watch it "several times a week or more."
46% of Independents also watch Fox News that frequently. Even
21% of Democrats say they watch several times a week or more.
Fox News' market dominance among Republicans and Independents
was not as evident in 2008 as it is today. Its growth in market
share and ratings has been phenomenal. Now its impact is
decisive in Republican primaries.
In 2012, the Republicans and Independents that will choose the
GOP nominee will be found watching O'Reilly, Hannity, Beck, Shep
Smith, Bret Baer, Megyn Kelly, Steve Doocey, Brian Kilmeade, and
Gretchen Carlson. It is on their shows that the early narrowing
down process will take place.
Day after day, we will see all the candidates on Fox News. Not
just in debates, but in frequent appearances on the opinion and
news shows on the network. We will watch how they handle
themselves, we'll learn how they answer questions, and we'll
come to our decision. As such, the Republican nominating
process will come to resemble American Idol where we watch them
perform and vote on who we like the best.
Then, we will tell pollsters who we have come to like and who we
don't. They will record our views every few weeks and, through
this process, front runners will emerge, candidates will surge,
leaders will fall back and the winnowing out will take place.
Normally, the early national polls don't mean much. It is the
polling in Iowa and New Hampshire that professionals follow. In
2008, Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton led all the early
surveys, but neither one was there on Election Day.
But now, surveys in Iowa and New Hampshire will show the same
results as the rest of the country because all their Republicans
will be watching Fox News - the same broadcast as the rest of us
are seeing. Whatever local activity is going on in Des Moines
or Cedar Rapids or Manchester or Concord will be drowned out by
the constant coverage Republicans will be getting on Fox News.
And, as the polls begin to tilt to one candidate or another,
campaign contributions will follow them. Those who surge will
attract funding and the ones who falter will find their bank
accounts drying up. Mitt Romney, who will self-fund his
campaign (and can count on the strong support of the LDS
community), will not face any financial scarcity, but if he
falls back in the polls, his electoral appeal will fade. Money
won't bring him back in 2012 any more than it did in 2008.
When the actual primaries take place, their results will tend to
ratify the consensus the country has come to from watching Fox
News. Americans will impose their views on the early primaries,
not the other way around.
Of course, the final decision will be made in the big state
primaries that follow. There, the delegates will be selected to
the nominating conventions and the winner will emerge. But the
quarter finals will be held on Fox News.
So the quarter finals will be waged over Fox News and ratified
by the voters in the early, small state primaries.
The semi-finals will take place in the big state primaries later
on.
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Christmas!
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__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
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***COPYRIGHT EILEEN MCGANN AND DICK MORRIS 2010.
REPRINTS WITH PERMISSION ONLY***
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