Not sure what to make
of this.
David
"Anyone who
thinks he has a better idea of
what's good for people than people
do is a swine."--P.
J. O’Rourke
-------- Original Message --------
THE GOP
PRIMARIES OF 12 WILL BE HELD ON FOX NEWS
By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN
MCGANN
Published on DickMorris.com
on November 29, 2010
Printer-Friendly Version
The Republican nominating process of 2012 will
be totally different from that of other years.
In fact, it will be the opposite of what we
are used to.
Since the procedural reforms initiated by
Democrat George McGovern - that carried over
into the Republican Party as well - primaries
have determined the winner of the nominations
in each party. Iowa and New Hampshire - the
first caucus and the first primary in the
nation - have tended to sort out the
candidates for us. They narrowed down the
field and left the rest of the nation with two
or three alternatives in each party.
These two small states dominated
the process because the contenders usually did
not have the money to wage national
campaigns. They could only afford to run in
these two small states at the start of the
campaign. And those who could afford to
compete nationally (Hillary, Rudy Giuliani,
and Mitt Romney) were forced to battle in
these two states because they were the first
test. Their superior financial resources
availed them little in states so small that
the purchase of TV time would not drain their
treasuries.
![http://reports.dickmorris.com/t/1837154/15708895/79415/0/]( "http://reports.dickmorris.com/t/1837154/15708895/79415/0/") |
In effect, Iowa and New
Hampshire have become the
quarter-finals, narrowing the
field down to two candidates in
each party who compete in the
subsequent primaries. In 2000, Al
Gore and Bill Bradly were the
Democratic semi-finalists who
survived these early rounds and
George Bush and John McCain were
their Republican equivalents. In
2004, John Kerry and John Edwards
emerged as the alternatives. In
2008, Iowa and New Hampshire
winnowed down the Democratic field
to Hillary Clinton vs. Barack
Obama and the Republican contest
to John McCain vs. Mike Huckabee.
The other contenders - Giuliani,
Romney, Edwards, Dodd, et al - may
have staggered on for a few more
rounds, but their candidacies were
doomed. (Romney won New
Hampshire, but his victory was
largely discounted because he came
from Massachusetts next door).
Now, in the Republican primaries,
it will be different. The short
list of contenders for the
nomination will not be chosen in
the early primaries. Iowa and New
Hampshire will not impose their
will on America. America will
impose its will on Iowa and New
Hampshire. |
The quarter finals will not be
waged in the cornfields of Iowa or the former
mill towns of New Hampshire. They will be
held in the living rooms of America among the
Fox News audience!
The share of the GOP electorate that watches
Fox News has become so dominant that the early
stages of the Republican nominating process
will be held on its air waves. It is there -
not in the early morning handshaking at
factory gates in Iowa and New Hampshire - that
we will meet the candidates and come to choose
our favorites.
About half of those who call themselves
Republicans in the United States report that
they watch Fox News every night and two-thirds
say they watch it "several times a week or
more." 46% of Independents also watch Fox
News that frequently. Even 21% of Democrats
say they watch several times a week or more.
Fox News' market dominance among Republicans
and Independents was not as evident in 2008 as
it is today. Its growth in market share and
ratings has been phenomenal. Now its impact
is decisive in Republican primaries.
In 2012, the Republicans and Independents that
will choose the GOP nominee will be found
watching O'Reilly, Hannity, Beck, Shep Smith,
Bret Baer, Megyn Kelly, Steve Doocey, Brian
Kilmeade, and Gretchen Carlson. It is on
their shows that the early narrowing down
process will take place.
Day after day, we will see all the candidates
on Fox News. Not just in debates, but in
frequent appearances on the opinion and news
shows on the network. We will watch how they
handle themselves, we'll learn how they answer
questions, and we'll come to our decision. As
such, the Republican nominating process will
come to resemble American Idol where we watch
them perform and vote on who we like the best.
Then, we will tell pollsters who we have come
to like and who we don't. They will record
our views every few weeks and, through this
process, front runners will emerge, candidates
will surge, leaders will fall back and the
winnowing out will take place.
Normally, the early national polls don't mean
much. It is the polling in Iowa and New
Hampshire that professionals follow. In 2008,
Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton led all the
early surveys, but neither one was there on
Election Day.
But now, surveys in Iowa and New Hampshire
will show the same results as the rest of the
country because all their Republicans will be
watching Fox News - the same broadcast as the
rest of us are seeing. Whatever local
activity is going on in Des Moines or Cedar
Rapids or Manchester or Concord will be
drowned out by the constant coverage
Republicans will be getting on Fox News.
And, as the polls begin to tilt to one
candidate or another, campaign contributions
will follow them. Those who surge will
attract funding and the ones who falter will
find their bank accounts drying up. Mitt
Romney, who will self-fund his campaign (and
can count on the strong support of the LDS
community), will not face any financial
scarcity, but if he falls back in the polls,
his electoral appeal will fade. Money won't
bring him back in 2012 any more than it did in
2008.
When the actual primaries take place, their
results will tend to ratify the consensus the
country has come to from watching Fox News.
Americans will impose their views on the early
primaries, not the other way around.
Of course, the final decision will be made in
the big state primaries that follow. There,
the delegates will be selected to the
nominating conventions and the winner will
emerge. But the quarter finals will be held
on Fox News.
So the quarter finals will be waged over Fox
News and ratified by the voters in the early,
small state primaries.
The semi-finals will take place in the big
state primaries later on.
Give John
Wayne for Christmas!
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__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
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***COPYRIGHT EILEEN MCGANN AND DICK
MORRIS 2010. REPRINTS WITH PERMISSION
ONLY***
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