Hi David, On Jan 29, 2011, at 12:26 PM, David R. Block wrote: > Tunisia may actually go that way (freedom and democracy); however, it is my > understanding that the Egyptian thing is being "sponsored" by the Muslim > Brotherhood, so that one does not bode well for the US or Israel.
My sources (weak as they are) claim that the MB originally sat out these protests, and only jumped on board later. Regardless, the issue of who started it is moot: as Pajamas Media points out, revolutions have their own logic, and Egyptian society is more complex than most, so what happens next is anyone's ballgame. > > This will put an end to any peace talks, probably open the Egyptian border to > Gaza, and then lead to Israel bombing Gaza into the stone age. If they aren't > there already. It may just make the rubble bounce. > > This is another intelligence failure, make that two, but it won't generate > NEAR the storm that generated from intelligence failures under the Bush > administration. I wonder why not? Actually, there's a useful distinction between secrets and mysteries. http://asiancorrespondent.com/27071/the-pants-bomber-backlash-and-the-difference-between-secrets-and-mysteries/ Secrets are things that only a few people know, and have to be ferreted out (like 9/11). Mysteries are things nobody knows ("when will cold fusion be viable"), and have to be predicted. Missing the first is an intelligence failure, missing the second is a futurist failure (which is almost redundant, sorry Billy :-). Obama can rightly be criticized for not seizing the moment; I think Bush might actually have handled this one better. But you can't really blame anyone for not seeing this coming. -- Ernie P. -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
