A more pessimistic view of the Egyptian situation. Like the author, I hope he's wrong.
Sent from my iPhone Begin forwarded message: > > Subject: [RC] What Egyptian public opinion portends for the outcome of the > popular revolt > > Jerusalem Post > ‘I’m worried that others aren’t worried’ > > By BARRY RUBIN > 01/30/2011 02:56 > > A Middle East expert answers some pressing questions about the current > upheaval in Egypt. > > > How do you judge the Egyptian protests? > > It is tempting to see this as a revolution that will bring down the regime. > But Egypt is not Tunisia. And while the demonstrations are passionate, it is > not clear that the numbers of participants are huge. If the elite and the > army hold together they could well prevail, perhaps by removing [President > Hosni] Mubarak to save the regime. We should be cautious in drawing > conclusions. > > Do you see the threat of an Islamist takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood? > > So far, the uprising has not been led by the Brotherhood. But it is the only > large organized opposition group. It is hard to see how it would not be the > leading force after a while. Its leadership would have to decide that it is > facing a revolutionary situation, and that this is the moment for an all-out > effort. > > But if it does so and fails, there will be a terrible repression, and the > group will be crushed. It appears that the Brotherhood is joining the > protests, but has not made its basic decision yet. In the longer term, if the > regime is completely overthrown, I do believe the Brotherhood will emerge as > the leader and perhaps the ruler of the country. > > Do you see any chance that Egypt will follow the model of Iran in 1979 – > democratic protests followed by an Islamist regime? > > Absolutely, yes. On one hand, so far they lack a charismatic leader. On the > other hand, alternative non-Islamist leadership is probably weaker than it > was in Iran. Remember also that the Iranian revolution went on for almost a > year, with the Islamists emerging as leaders only after five or six months. > > Many experts predicted that moderate democrats would emerge as rulers and > said an Islamist regime was impossible; but that isn't what happened. I very > much hope I am wrong. > > How can the Arab status quo be changed without letting the jihadist fanatics > take power? Are democracy and liberalism possible? > > One would need strong leaders, strong organizations, an ability to repress > opposition, a clear program and unity, among other things. None of this is > present on the moderate democratic side. Again, I wish it were otherwise. [In > Egypt] more than any other country, reformers – though not all of them – have > believed they can work with and then manipulate the Islamists. That seems > like a mistake. > > The chances for democracy and liberalism are different in every country. > > Tunisia has a good chance because there is a strong middle class and a weak > Islamist movement. But in Egypt – look at the numbers in the latest Pew poll. > Thirty percent like Hizbullah (66% don’t). Forty-nine percent are favorable > toward Hamas (48% are negative); and 20% smile (72% frown) at al-Qaida. > > Roughly speaking, one-fifth of Egyptians applaud the most extreme Islamist > terrorist group, while around one-third back revolutionary Islamists abroad. > This doesn’t tell us what proportion of Egyptians want an Islamist government > at home, but it is an indicator. > > In Egypt, 82% want stoning for those who commit adultery; 77% would like to > see whippings and hands cut off for robbery; 84% favor the death penalty for > a Muslim who changes his religion. > > Asked if they supported “modernizers” or “Islamists,” only 27% said > modernizers, while 59% said Islamists. > > Is this meaningless? Last December 20, I wrote that these “horrifying figures > in Egypt... one day might be cited to explain an Islamist revolution there... > What this analysis also shows is that a future Islamist revolution in Egypt > and Jordan is quite possible. > > What kind of threat does the Muslim Brotherhood network pose to Israel and > the Western democracies? > > In power? A huge threat: renewed warfare, overwhelming anti-Americanism, > efforts to spread revolution to other moderate states, a potential alignment > with Iran and Syria (though that might not happen), incredible damage to > Western interests. In short – a real disaster. > > What shocks me is that Western media and experts seem so carried away by this > [protest] movement that they are only considering a best-case outcome. As I > suggested, I would prefer things were otherwise, but I am deeply worried. And > one of the things I'm worried about is that others don’t seem to be worried. > > Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs > (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs > (MERIA) Journal. > -- -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
