Posted on Jun 13, 2011
EDITOR'S NOTE: In addition to this commentary, an
analysis article also is part of this posting.
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (BP)--It is time for the Southern Baptist
Convention to move from denial to decision.
It has happened again. The SBC reported membership has
declined, again. And, baptisms are at their lowest level
in 60 years.
I remember the first time the membership declined, just a
few years ago. I pointed out (based on data from LifeWay's
now-retired statistician Cliff Tharp) that it was not an
aberration, but a pattern. The 50-year membership trend
was moving into negative territory.
"Put simply," I wrote in light of 2007 data, "membership
may go up next year, but the trend points to the negative.
It probably won't go up. But, even if it does, I believe
we will have more declining than growing years over the
next decade. Unless the trend changes, membership has
peaked."
How did we respond? I remember how strongly these
observations were denied. A segment of the SBC seemed to
think closing our eyes or disputing the data would change
our reality.
In 2008 when we were again faced with the data of a
continuing trend, I noted, "Today we are facing a set of
numbers to which we are not accustomed.... This year, I
believe that our tipping point continues to tip. Unless
things change, we are about to enter a time when we grow
accustomed to decline and think back to the good ol' days
of growth."
Following that report, there was a little less denial.
Actually, more spoke up. Chuck Kelley, president of New
Orleans Baptist Theological Seminary, warned that Southern
Baptists are in danger of entering a deep decline with all
the accompanying problems.
Subsequently, the data for 2009 revealed no reversal.
Now, we can see four years in a row of statistics
confirming a long-term trend of membership decline in the
SBC. It is what it is.
It is time for the SBC to move from denial to decision. I
am only echoing what others have said before: It is time
for change in the SBC. But change, just for the sake of
change, is not enough. We must ask, "What kind of change
do we need?"
For me, as a missiologist and denominational servant,
change needs to come in several places.
A need for Missio Dei
First, we need a renewed passion for churches to live on
mission. We need to see the church not simply as an
institution but as an agent of God's Kingdom-mission.
Increasingly, people must recognize the church is a
missionary body with a divine call to be a sign and
instrument of God's Kingdom. In short, God is a sending
God and we are a sent people.
A need for diversity
Second, we need a greater emphasis on ethnic diversity.
We've been so Southern and so white for so long that the
annual meetings look like a loaf of Wonder Bread. Our
ideas of "reaching out" are less impressive than striving
to create an intentionally multicultural family that
reflects the population of heaven. Simply put,
denominations will not embrace ethnic leaders without a
plan and strategy to do so. The SBC Executive Committee is
pressing in on this issue, and it is about time.
A need for a new generation
Third, we must have a plan to raise up a new generation,
not just of leaders, but young people throughout the SBC.
The oldest generation may indeed be the "Greatest," but it
must not be our last. The SBC will not last forever based
solely on the presence of its elder statesmen and women.
Mentoring, where the younger learns from the elder, and
reverse mentoring, where the elder learns from the
younger, creates the kind of dynamics that perpetuate an
effective denomination without the bloodletting of civil
war.
A need for a renewal in church planting
Finally, we need more new churches in our convention. I'm
thankful for the efforts of Kevin Ezell and the team at
the North American Mission Board as they are taking bold
steps to refocus on church planting. Even in the Bible
Belt there are large segments of people who have not been
and are not being reached with the Gospel. In our large
cities one could surmise that so much "urban blight" is
the result of a spiritual vacuum. In the
lesser-evangelized parts of our own country are people who
have been insulated from the Gospel in the most
Gospel-saturated society in history. Only a vast movement
of church planting across North America will see these
people reached with the message of Jesus Christ.
Telling the truth has been controversial in SBC life. But
facts are still our friends. The fact is, our denomination
is struggling and needs to change. Yet, it is not the
denomination that is "great," rather, it is that a
denomination is a family of great churches. I love those
churches and pray God will use them to advance His name
and His fame. The denomination is the tool the churches
use to accomplish the God-given goal.
When will change come? I don't know. Some will keep going
as before -- considering slow decline as acceptable as
long as they can keep doing church in a way they have
grown to prefer. Some are content to successfully manage
decline. Yet, for others, knowing that 2010 saw the fewest
number of new believers going through the baptismal waters
since Eisenhower was president will break their hearts.
They will weep for the lost.
We don't change until the pain of staying the same grows
greater than the pain of change. May the truth break our
hearts, drive us to our knees and compel us into the
mission.
--30--
Ed Stetzer is vice president of the research and ministry
development division and missiologist in residence at
LifeWay Christian Resources of the Southern Baptist
Convention. He also has written the following analysis of
the SBC statistics.
Analysis of SBC statistics
By Ed Stetzer
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (BP)--The numbers are out, again. They
show decline, again. But what do they really mean?
The Annual Church Profile (ACP) numbers are actually not
compiled by LifeWay Research, but are gathered by our
executive communications and relations division in
partnership with state conventions. We received the
numbers Wednesday and decided some analysis might be
helpful as we digest the changes the data reveals.
The biggest issue is a negative membership trend. As I see
it, the greatest concern is not that we have 0.15 percent
less members, but that it continues to reinforce a
membership trend. Annual membership shifts happen
regularly and have multiple causes.
Trends are what should concern us -- and the one that
concerns us most is the trend of membership change from
year to year. A year is not a trend, but we are looking at
a 50-year negative trend in regard to membership
growth/decline measured year to year.
Cliff Tharp, who has written a helpful book on SBC
denominational statistics, led the ACP process for 35
years. He wrote a few years ago, "We have been slowing in
our growth and have now passed into decline. We are right
at the top of the arc and beginning to go down. But
changes we make now can change that trend significantly.
These stats are not new but it has never caught anyone's
attention until now."
The "arc" to which Cliff refers is our total membership,
as shown here:
![]() |
But, the 50-year trend of membership change is, in our
view, the greater concern. It shows that the SBC was
growing rapidly in the 1950s, growing well in the '60s and
'70s, growing slightly in the '80s and '90s, and then the
decline started in the new millennium. The graph tells the
story:
If this 50-year trend continues (and they generally do),
the small declines we see now will become big declines in
the years and decades to come.
Second, the baptism trend is disturbing and now a trend of
decline. For several years, LifeWay Research tried not to
indicate baptisms were "trending down." The reason for
this is that shifts over a few years were not unusual over
the 60-year picture. Thus, we were thinking (and hoping)
that baptisms would "return to the mean," which is a
statistical way of saying they will go back to normal --
and at this point that means "up." Last year's slight
uptick gave many hope, but we sounded a cautious (though
hopeful) note then.
Surely all Southern Baptists prayed this was not a trend
and there would be a return to the mean. In light of last
year's data, we are forced to reconsider that view.
In our professional judgment, it is now appropriate to say
SBC baptisms are on a downward trend. The large decline
this year has shifted the trend line down over the last
several decades (notice how it slopes to the right -- it
has not in past years). Thus, we must regrettably say
baptisms are now trending toward decline.
We could easily create some "sensational" news with a new
graph tracking baptisms since 2000. The picture would be
dramatic (and truthful), but we are still hoping that this
brief trend (a decade is not that long -- consider 1980 to
1988 and the subsequent reversal) will change direction.
But for now, SBC membership is in decline, membership
change is in a 50-year decline, and baptisms are in a
decade-long decline and trending down over time.
The news is not good, but God is still in charge and
Southern Baptists are a wonderful people with a passion
for God, His Word, and sharing Christ. I have given
thoughts elsewhere on what we should do; here I simply
point to where we are. Facts are our friends and these
facts should concern us. Yet, as Cliff Tharp said,
"Changes we make now can change that trend significantly
