Note : Oregon Hispanic population is now 11 %. from the site : Right Directions Hispanics Won’t Save Obama in 2012
June 15 2011 By MERRILL MATTHEWS (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Census_Bureau_2000,_Hispanics_in_the_United_States.png) Image via Wikipedia President Barack Obama is hoping his visit to Puerto Rico will shore up the Hispanic vote for Democrats, but more importantly for his 2012 re-election bid. The media choir has been singing a similar tune, especially since the U.S. Census Bureau recently released a new _report_ (http://2010.census.gov/news/releases/operations/cb11-cn146.html) , “The Hispanic Population: 2010,” which documents the disproportionately large growth in the Hispanic population. According to the 2010 Census, there were 308.7 million people residing in the U.S. on April 1, 2010, of which 50.5 million (16 percent) were of Hispanic or Latino origin. In addition, the Bureau asserted, “More than half of the growth in the total population of the United States between 2000 and 2010 was due to the increase in the Hispanic population.” Since Hispanics tend to vote Democratic— 67 percent for Obama in 2008, according to a post-election poll cited in the _New York Times_ (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/07/us/politics/07latino.html) —the Obama campaign thinks that growth could swing important states to the president. That thinking is as wishful, and deluded, as the happy talk that surrounded the president’s economic policies and “shovel-ready” stimulus efforts that were going to get the country working again. Here’s why. People ≠ Voters — That New York Times story pointed out that only 10 million Latinos voted in the 2008 election, 9 percent of all voters, and that was a record high. Why so low? For one thing, the Hispanic population is _younger_ (http://www.infoplease.com/spot/hhmcensus1.html) than the general population: 27.4 years was the median age for Hispanics in 2009, vs. 36.8 years for the U.S. Younger ages are less likely to vote, and a disproportionately large percentage of Hispanics aren’t even of voting age. Another important point: No one knows how many of those 50 million Hispanics are citizens eligible to vote. The Census counts people in the U.S., not citizens. Someone from the Bureau told me that interviewers do not ask about citizenship nor do they record citizenship status. There has been a groundswell of Hispanics entering the U.S. over the last decade, some legally but many not, which has led to a huge national debate over immigration. How many of the 15.2 million more Hispanics (between 2000 and 2010) are eligible to vote? We simply don’t know from Census surveys, but it’s reasonable to think that many, and perhaps most, can’t—at least not legally. The Electoral College Decides — The Electoral College, not the popular vote, decides who will be president. If none of those 50 million new Hispanics lived in California, President Obama would likely get all of the state’s 55 electoral votes; if all of them lived in California—and the largest number do—and they all vote for Obama he would still get … 55 electoral votes. So the question for presidential election purposes is as much about where those votes are as how many there are. The Census Bureau says 75 percent of the Hispanic population is located in eight states: California, Texas, Florida, New York, Illinois, Arizona, New Jersey and Colorado. Of those states, California, New York, Illinois and New Jersey will very likely remain blue in the next presidential election, while Texas and Arizona will almost certainly remain red. Colorado, which has been trending blue, and Florida, which leans red but not by much, could be swayed. Of the nine states where the Hispanic population more than doubled—Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and South Dakota—eight are in the south and all but one, Maryland, either lean or are strongly red. The point is that a burgeoning Hispanic population may lead to a major shift in voting patterns at some point in the future, but not 2012. That said, there are some important swing states—e.g., Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Colorado—that could be affected by Hispanic votes next year. Hispanics Are Diverse — The Census Bureau struggles with identifying a “ Hispanic” since it is not a race, but more a place of origin, such as Central or South America or countries located in the Caribbean. Needless to say, there are lots of differences among these populations. Puerto Ricans living on the mainland, for example, tend to vote Democratic; those of Cuban descent tend to vote Republican. But the largest Puerto Rican population is in New York, which will vote for Obama anyway. In swing-state Florida, however, Cubans outnumber Puerto Ricans by 400,000. Hispanics Are More Affected by a Bad Economy — A lot has been made of the notion that the Hispanic population, many of whom are Catholic, tend to embrace conservative social values but liberal economic policies. And those conservative social values give Republicans an opportunity to attract them to the GOP. But the real opportunity for the GOP to get their presidential vote in 2012 comes from the devastating impact President Obama’s economic policies have had on lower-income families. Texas, where I live, has the second largest Hispanic population; they come mostly from Mexico and Central America, according to the Census. Most are hard workers who take service sector jobs in agriculture, construction, yard and landscape work, and restaurants. When the economy goes south, they are some of the first and hardest hit. Those who are citizens and can vote may decide that Obama has had his chance. The recession officially ended in June of 2009, yet two years later the unemployment rate at 9.1 percent is still disastrously high—and much higher for Hispanics. Even more troubling, the president seems befuddled about what to do next. Of course, Obama may still get more Hispanic votes than his Republican challenger, but that doesn’t mean he wins; Sen. John Kerry won the Hispanic vote over President Bush in 2004 by 9 percentage points, and Bush still won. But there is little reason to think, both for demographic reasons and the sour economy, that Hispanics will provide Obama with a victory in 2012. However, the Census Bureau publication does point to a trend that neither party can ignore. Hispanics are becoming a larger and more politically potent force in U.S. politics. The party that moves to provide them with the greatest opportunities, not the most handouts, is the one that will capture their allegiance for the long term. Merrill Matthews is a resident scholar with the Institute for Policy Innovation in Dallas, Texas. -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
