Centroids : My interpretation of the results from Saturday's polling-- First, the Iowa Straw Poll proves nothing. It has been wrong as often as it has been right. However, IF it is any indication then the GOP could be headed for failure in 2012. Look at it this way : If Bachmann wins the nomination which states would she just about 100% certainly lose ? California New York New Jersey Illinois Pennsylvania Massachusetts Maryland These are just the big prizes. Also in the "sure loss" column would be Oregon, Washington state, Connecticut, New Mexico, etc Probable losses : Wisconsin, Virginia, Colorado, etc. No better than 50 - 50 in Florida and Ohio. The trouble is that Perry and Ron Paul could be expected to lose the same states with Paul, in my humble opinion, lucky to take more than 10 states nationwide. He has the same kind of national appeal as Goldwater did in 1964, viz, a base of true-believer zealots but otherwise zero appeal to the great majority. This effectively leaves Romney as the only GOP candidate with the possibility of picking up enough non-GOP-stronghold states to defeat Obama. But CAN Romney win the nomination against a strong conservative challenger ? To say the least, skepticism is in order. At the moment, despite all his liabilities, while the Republican Party may well be poised to hold the House and maybe even pick up a few additional seats, and will likely take the Senate, the odds are even that BHO will retain the WH. Yes, as a forecast, just about even. This is "at the moment." I would not bet one thin dime on these prognostications. However, there is some basic math involved and there is reason to be Very Wary. Billy
-- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
