If you don’t think ideological perceptions matter in
American politics, you need read no further. If you do and
you’re a Democrat, there’s something to worry about. Even as
the terms of the political debate in Washington, in the eyes
of many Democrats, have moved steadily to the right, the
electorate is increasingly likely to see itself as
ideologically closer to the Republican Party than to
Democrats. Unless Obama and Democrats can find a solution to
this riddle—and find one fast—they will be contesting the
2012 election on forbidding terrain.
In mid-2005, as disaffection with the Bush administration
and the Republican Party was gathering momentum, the Pew
Research Center asked American to place themselves and the
political parties on a standard left-right ideological
continuum. At that time, average voters saw themselves as
just right of center and equidistant from the two political
parties. Independents considered themselves twice as far
away from the Republican Party as from the Democrats,
presaging their sharp shift toward the Democrats in the 2006
mid-term election.
In August of this year, Pew posed a very similar question
(note to survey wonks: Pew used a five-point scale, versus
six in 2005), but the results were very different. Although
average voters continue to see themselves as just right of
center, they now place themselves twice as far away from the
Democratic Party as from the Republicans. In addition,
Independents now see themselves as significantly closer to
the Republican Party, reversing their perceptions of six
years ago.
There’s another difference as well. In 2005, Republicans’
and Democrats’ views of their own parties dovetailed with
the perceptions of the electorate as a whole. Today, while
voters as a whole agree with Republicans’ evaluation of
their party as conservative, they disagree with Democrats,
who on average see their party as moderate rather than
liberal. So when Independents, who see themselves as
modestly right of center, say that Democrats are too
liberal, average Democrats can’t imagine what they’re
talking about.
Compounding the problem, the American people are gradually
polarizing. According to Gallup, twenty years ago, as Bill
Clinton began his presidential campaign, self-described
moderates formed the plurality of the electorate—43 percent;
conservatives were 36 percent, liberals 17 percent. By the
summer of 2011, the conservative share had risen to 41
percent and liberals to 21 percent, while moderates declined
to 36 percent, surrendering their plurality status to
conservatives. Because nearly all conservatives now vote for
Republicans and liberals for Democrats, the share of the
shrinking pool of moderates that Democrats need to build a
majority is now larger than ever.
Another Gallup finding that should alert Democrats is the
ongoing collapse of public confidence in government. A
survey released earlier this week found that Americans now
believe that the federal government wastes 51 cents of every
dollar it spends, the highest estimate ever recorded.
Twenty-five years ago, that figure stood at only 38 cents.
While estimates of waste at the state and local level remain
lower than for the federal level, they have also risen by
double digits in recent decades.
Overall, it’s hard to avoid concluding that the ideological
playing-field heading into 2012 is tilted against Democrats.
This reality only deepens the strategic dilemma the White
House now confronts. The conventional strategy for an
incumbent is to secure the base before the general public
gets fully engaged and then reach out to the swing voters
whose decisions spell the difference between victory and
defeat. By contrast, the Obama team spent most of 2011 in
what turned out to be a failed effort to win over the
Independent voters who deserted Democrats in droves last
November, in the process alienating substantial portions of
the base. To rekindle the allegiance and enthusiasm of core
supporters, the president now finds himself having to draw
sharp ideological lines, risking further erosion among
Independents and even moderate Democrats. Tellingly, a
number of at-risk Democratic senators up for reelection in
2012 have already refused to go along with key elements of
the president’s recent proposals.
Granted, ideology isn’t everything. Political scientists
have long observed that Americans are more liberal on
particulars than they are in general—ideologically
conservative but operationally liberal. (Surveys have shown
majority support for most individual elements of the
president’s jobs and budget packages.) And the Republicans
could undermine their chances by nominating a presidential
candidate who is simply too hard-edged conservative for
moderates and Independents to stomach.
In the face of widespread skepticism and disillusion, it
will be an uphill battle for Democrats to persuade key
voting blocks that government can really make their lives
better. But if they fail, the public will continue to equate
public spending with waste, the anti-government message will
continue to resonate, and Democrats will be in dire straits
when heading into what is shaping up as a pivotal election.
William Galston is a senior fellow at the Brookings
Institution and a contributing editor for The New
Republic.
