Perry's problem was not just that he punted on the tough
question of how to respond to a terrorist takeover of
nuclear-armed Pakistan.
Even the smooth-talking Mitt Romney might have had trouble
with that nightmare scenario. And Perry was right to cite
our informal alliance with India
as a source of leverage.
The problem was that Perry couldn't respond cogently to
utterly predictable questions and was unable to articulate
his pre-scripted criticisms of Romney. A case can certainly
be made that Romney has flip-flopped on issues. But Perry
failed to make it.
Perry defended his order requiring HPV vaccinations by
citing his talks with a woman with cervical cancer -- but
they took place only after his order. He failed to fend off
attacks on his criticisms of Social Security in his book
"Fed Up!," saying he was only endorsing the longtime
exemption from the program for state and local public
employees.
He failed to explain why Texas, with its large legal and
illegal immigrant and young populations, has a high
percentage of people without health insurance.
He was eloquent in defending Texas's in-state college
tuition for children of illegal aliens, but his stand is
hugely unpopular with Republicans outside Texas. And he
failed to point out that it helped him win a respectable 38
percent from Latino voters in the 2010 election.
Mitt Romney clearly benefited from his greater experience
over the years and his superior preparation in recent weeks.
But he also benefited from the fact that no one challenged
him convincingly on claims that he is unlikely to be able to
sustain.
He sloughed off Perry's accurate charge that he supported
the Obama administration's Race to the Top education program
-- a defensible position, but not a popular one for
Republicans.
He repeated now what has been his standard defense of his
Massachusetts health care program. But someday someone is
going to nail him on his insistence that its individual
mandate to buy insurance covers only 8 percent of the
population. It actually applies to everyone.
He avoided Perry's claim that he deleted defenses of the
program from the paperback edition of his book. He won't be
able to deftly dodge that forever.
If he overtakes Perry in the polls -- a likely possibility
after the Texan's stumbling performance -- he will likely
become the pinata for the rest of the field, a role he
figured to play before Perry entered the race.
None of the other seven candidates on the stage made a
convincing case for advancing to the top tier. The closest
was Rick Santorum, who was eloquent and knowledgeable on
foreign policy. But his answer on gays in the military was
cringe-inducing for people on all sides of the issue.
Michele Bachmann refused to back down from her statement
relaying the claim of a woman who approached her saying that
the HPV vaccine caused retardation in her child. Bachmann
has made headway by championing the instincts of ordinary
hardworking citizens over the supposed wisdom of experts.
But on vaccinations the experts are right.
Pundits are fixated on designating a frontrunner, but the
polls in this race -- witness Romney's rise and fall and
Perry's rise -- have all the solidity of cotton candy.
Bachmann's numbers peaked in July, Herman Cain's in June,
Ron Paul's and Newt Gingrich's in May -- and not at high
levels. Santorum's haven't peaked at all.
Could another candidate give a better performance than
Perry and deliver more sustainable responses than Romney? To
judge from their performances in various public and private
venues the answer is yes for Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan and
Chris Christie.
Each has taken himself out of the race. Each still has time
to get in. Most voters are ready to reject Barack Obama. But
not necessarily for one of those on the stage Thursday
night.
