As partisan gridlock intensifies, the Pew Research
Center's constant monitoring of Independent voters
continues to reveal the building momentum of the
non-partisan movement.
In a recent Pew survey
primarily
focused on the GOP courting white voters who voted
overwhelmingly for President Obama, a game-changing
phenomenon emerged. Since 1990, the Independent movement
has steadily grown and now commands about the same
percentage of support as Democrats.
Most recently, in what may be reflective of Independents'
outlook of President Obama's leadership, Pew says that
Democrats now hold a much narrower edge with this
particular demograpic (whites) than they did in 2008.
Although the GOP has made huge gains with white voters,
going from a two point edge in 2008 to a thirteen point
lead today, the Center's research largely credits
Independents for being behind the current drop in
Democratic support.
Overall, partisan affiliation with the Democratic party
has fallen from a quarter century high in 2008. From 1990
to 2011, Independents have grown steadily from 28% to 34%.
This outpaces the percentage of Republicans, whose current
identification of voters matches the 28% that Independents
had a few times in the past eleven years.
Even though more Independents lean Republican now
compared to 2008, going from 11%- 16%, the Democrats' fall
from grace doesn't automatically translate into votes for
the Republican Party. Pew gives two reasons for this.
First, while the 2010 midterms may have been good for
Republicans, the gains that they made that year haven't
continued as the overall balance of partisan attachments
has held steady for the first half of 2011. Second, even
though many Independents may lean toward Republicans,
registration in the party has remained relatively
stagnant. Combining Independents who lean right or left
with partisans, Democrats only have a four point advantage
over Republicans in the Pew Center's calculations.
While Democrats have done very well among minorities,
especially with Black voters, Barack Obama and the
Democrats also face a big challenge in courting Hispanics.
A recent
poll conducted by Generation
Opportunity indicated that strong majorities of young
Hispanics are uneasy about levying taxes on individuals
and small businesses to get the federal budget under
control. Instead, they favor spending cuts.
Yet, this doesn't automatically translate into votes for
the GOP. But, if these young Hispanic voters stay home,
this does translate into more of an advantage for
Republicans given the resurgence of whites that now
support them. With more whites supporting the GOP now than
in 2008, Republicans hold a 52%-39% advantage over their
Democratic colleagues.
Besides Independents, the youth vote will also be a
factor to watch in 2012. While the youth are predominately
Democrats or lean that way by 52%-39%, that is a much
smaller margin compared to 2008. The changes in party
identification over time are based on compiling 223
surveys and 300,000 interviews among registered voters by
the Pew Research Center from January 1990 to June 2011.
