(http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/11/20/juggernaut_arabia_112133.html#)
(http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/11/20/juggernaut_arabia_112133.html#)
(http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/11/20/juggernaut_arabia_112133.html#)
Real Clear Politics
November 20, 2011
Juggernaut Arabia
By _David Ignatius_
(http://www.realclearpolitics.com/authors/?author=David+Ignatius&id=14720)
RIYADH -- Over this past year of Arab Spring revolt, _Saudi Arabia_
(http://realclearworld.com/topic/around_the_world/saudi_arabia/?utm_source=rcw&utm_
medium=link&utm_campaign=rcwautolink)
has increasingly replaced the _United States_
(http://realclearworld.com/topic/around_the_world/united_states/?utm_source=rcw&utm_medium=link&utm_campa
ign=rcwautolink) as the key status-quo power in the Middle East -- a role
that seems likely to expand even more in coming years as the Saudis boost
their military and economic spending.
Saudis describe the kingdom's growing role as a reaction, in part, to the
diminished clout of the United States. They still regard the U.S.-Saudi
relationship as valuable, but it's no longer seen as a guarantor of their
security. For that, the Saudis have decided they must rely more on themselves
--
and, down the road, on a wider set of friends that includes their military
partner, _Pakistan_
(http://realclearworld.com/topic/around_the_world/pakistan/?utm_source=rcw&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=rcwautolink)
, and their
largest oil customer, _China_
(http://realclearworld.com/topic/around_the_world/china/?utm_source=rcw&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=rcwautolink)
.
For Saudi watchers, this change is striking. The kingdom's old practice was
to keep its head down, spread money to radical groups to try to buy peace,
and rely on a U.S. military umbrella. Now, Riyadh is more open and vocal
in pressing its interests -- especially in challenging _Iran_
(http://realclearworld.com/topic/around_the_world/iran/?utm_source=rcw&utm_medium=link&utm_
campaign=rcwautolink) .
The more-assertive Saudi role has been clear in its open support for the
ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is Iran's crucial Arab ally.
The Saudis were decisive backers of last weekend's Arab League decision to
suspend _Syria_
(http://realclearworld.com/topic/around_the_world/syria/?utm_source=rcw&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=rcwautolink)
's membership
(though they also supported the organization's waffling decision on Wednesday
to
send another mediation team to Damascus).
Money is always the Saudis' biggest resource, and they are planning to
spend it more aggressively as a regional power broker -- roughly double their
armed forces over the next 10 years and spend at least $15 billion annually
to support countries weakened economically by this year's turmoil.
The enormous military expansion was signaled this past week by Gen. Hussein
al-Qubail, the chief of staff. Because of "surrounding circumstances," he
said, the Saudis would spend more to achieve "the highest degree of combat
readiness."
Overseeing the arms buildup will be a new defense minister, Prince Salman
bin Abdul-Aziz, described by Saudis as a strong manager during his many
years as governor of Riyadh. This contrasts with what foreign analysts say was
the loose discipline (and occasional corruption scandals) under his pred
ecessor, Prince Sultan, who died in October after 48 years as defense
minister.
Saudi sources provided an unofficial summary of the defense buildup. The
army will add 125,000 to its estimated current force of 150,000; the national
guard will grow by 125,000 from an estimated 100,000; the navy will spend
more than $30 billion buying new ships and sea-skimming missiles; the air
force will add 450 to 500 planes; and the Ministry of Interior is boosting
its police and special forces by about 60,000. The Saudis are also
developing their own version of the U.S. Joint Special Operations Command.
The doubling of ground forces is partly a domestic employment project, but
it's also a signal of Saudi confidence.
The Saudi shopping list is a bonanza for U.S. and European arms merchants.
That's especially true of the air force procurement, with the Saudis
planning to buy 72 "Eurofighters" from EADS, and 84 new F-15s from Boeing. The
rationale is containing Iran, whose nuclear ambitions the Saudis strongly
oppose. But Riyadh has an instant deterrent ready, too, in the form of the
Pakistani nuclear arsenal that the Saudis are widely believed to have helped
finance.
Big weapons purchases have been a Saudi penchant for decades. More
interesting, in some ways, is their quiet effort to provide support to friendly
regimes to keep the region from blowing itself up in this period of
instability. The Saudis have budgeted $4 billion this year to help _Egypt_
(http://realclearworld.com/topic/around_the_world/egypt/?utm_source=rcw&utm_medium=link
&utm_campaign=rcwautolink) , $1.4 billion for Jordan, and $500 million
annually over the next decade for Bahrain and Oman. They will doubtless pump
money, as well, to Syria, _Yemen_
(http://realclearworld.com/topic/around_the_world/yemen/?utm_source=rcw&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=rcwautolink)
and
_Lebanon_
(http://realclearworld.com/topic/around_the_world/lebanon/?utm_source=rcw&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=rcwautolink)
once the smoke clears
in those volatile countries.
"In outlays, we've budgeted $15 billion a year just to keep the peace,"
says one Saudi source, adding up the economic assistance to Arab neighbors.
But that's hardly a stretch for a country that, by year-end, will have about
$650 billion in foreign reserves.
The Saudis speak more charitably of the United States than they did a few
months ago, after reassuring visits by Vice President Joe Biden and national
security adviser Tom Donilon, and close military and intelligence
cooperation continues. But President Barack Obama is seen as a relatively weak
leader who abandoned his own call for a Palestinian state under Israeli
pressure. The U.S. isn't exactly the god that failed, but its divine powers
are
certainly suspect in Riyadh.
--
Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community
<[email protected]>
Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism
Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
